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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, Spring 2014 Mar Apr May 2014 - compiled 6 June 2014



Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC data will be added when available. UK data shows UK average 1.3C above normal and slightly above normal (105%) rain but regional variations.



Follow links above to orignal forecast summary for more detail of forecast.

DATA available in Feb 2014 for MAM 2014


The comment summary for normal or above temps and rain was OK. UKMO signal for E Scotland to be drier was good. Idea of less warm in SW and relaively warmer in NE UK was also OK.

1. Russia: PPN fair temps not so good
2. USA - FSU : warmer in N OK otherwise temps and ppn not good.
3. USA - CFS2 : understated temps whic is typical PPN fairly good
4. UKMO : Temps ok ppn not so good alothough signal of near normal was OK.
5. UKMO Contingency - was good with temp and rain
6. USA - IRI : good
7. KMA : fair with generally near normal indicated
8. JMA - temps good indication ppn fair
9. NMME - near normal values were a little on cool side.
9a. IMME - near normal values were a little on cool side
10. BCC - Temps good. PPn fair


DATA available in JAN 2014 for for MAM 2014

Main mild theme with some above avare rain was OK

DATA available in Dec 2013 for for MAM 2014

Summary OK no one model was best.




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