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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2021 Apr May June - compiled 3 Aug 2021
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP
EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
ECMWF
WMO March 2020 data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.
Probability combined.
BOM monthly
Canada monthly
CPTEC Brazil monthly
UKMO monthly
Moscow monthly
SEOUL monthly
Tokyo monthly
Toulouse monthly
Washington monthly
ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies
EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly
UKMO summary
Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Although August was slightly cooler in the south the main theme for the UK was above average temperatures especially so in the NW>.
Rainfall. Overall above average in the S and SE (especially in July) but fpor most of the UK rainfall was below average especially so in W Scotland.
Sunshine. Below average in the SE and above in the NW
Pressure. slightly above average in the S and above average elsewhere
Follow link to
original forecast summary for detail of forecast.
DATA available in May for 2021 June July August
Original Summary - 170521 -
Suggestion of a NW/SE divide with the N and NW forecast to have temperatures nearer normal and S/SE warmer than average. Rainfall probably near or above average in the North and below average in the south - BUT - there is a fairly consistent indication for a wetter August event in the south and this may lead to higher rainfall totals for the season despite more than average dry days for southern parts. (Note model means are not able to pick up extreme hot/cold wet/dry but may give some indication of the trends).
Comment: 020921 - Completely opposite temperature split than in the forecast - very poor. Very poor rainfall forecast.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
Comment: Most models (but not Washington, Tokyo, Brazil, Moscow and Canada) got the ideas of above average temperatures but NOT the geographic location. There were some hints at below average rainfall often spoilt by a wetter indication for August.
1. Russia (WMO): Temp V poor . PPN V poor .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair . PPN poor .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good . PPN fair .
4. UKMO : Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL good
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN no signal .
6. KMA APCC : Temp fair . PPN poor .
7. JMA : Temp poor. PPN poor . PMSL fair
8. NMME : Temp fair . PPN poor.
9. WMO multi : Temp poor. PPN poor
10. BCC : Temp good . PPN good .
11. NASA : Temp fair . PPN poor
12. Brazil: Temp fair . PPN poor.
13. CanSips : Temp poor . PPN poor .
14. IMME : Temp fair . PPN poor.
15. Copernicus Temp fair . PPN poor. PMSL poor
16. CMCC Temp good . PPN good . PMSL good
17: DWD Temp fair . PPN poor . PMSL poor
18. ECCC Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL good
19 JMA Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
20 UKMO Temp fair . PPN poor. PMSL poor
21. MF Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL good
22 NCEP Temp good . PPN poor. PMSL poor
23 ECMWF Temp: fair . PPN poor. PMSL good
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