11:58 03/10/2019 Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area Verification index
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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2019 June July August - compiled 11 August 2019


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN3 TN7 TN2

ECMWF
EC

WMO
WMO

UKMO
UKMO

CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN6 TN8 TN5

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Slightly above average in most places locally near normal - July strongest anomaly.

Rainfall. Mostly above normal but parts of the south, near and locally below normal, thanks to drier July and also in east a drier August. Wetter June except in N.

Pressure. Below average



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in May for June July August 2019


Original Summary - 180519 - warmer than average summer but uncertain rainfall, fairly even split between drier and wetter solutions but some consistent indication for longer drier periods than average but perhaps some heavier rain events. Probably less than average wet days but rain totals locally may be above average. Pressure likely to be above average.
Comment: Temperature indication correct, idea of wetter was OK but fewer dry days than average.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.

Comment: Temperature graphics - most got the overall signal but not slightly warmer July and less warm June. Rainfall signal for wetter summer from many but a number of models gave July a wetter month which was not correct.
1. Russia: Temp poor . PPN poor .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp Good (got July on some output but not shown on E 3 graphics) . PPN poor .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp Good . PPN no signal .
4. UKMO : Temp Good . PPN fair . PMSL poor
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal. PPN no signal .
6. KMA APCC : Temp fair . PPN no signal .
7. JMA : Temp Good . PPN poor . PMSL poor
8. NMME : Temp Good. PPN poor.
9. IMME - Temp Good. PPN poor.
10. BCC - Temp Good. PPN poor.
11. NASA - Temp Good. PPN poor.
12. Brazil: Temp poor. PPN poor PMSL: poor.
13. CanSips : Temp fair. PPN poor .
14. SAWS: : Temp poor. PPN poor.
15. Copernicus Temp Good . PPN poor . PMSL poor
16. EC Temp Good . PPN fair.
17. MF Temp Good. PPN poor.
18. JAMSTEC: Temp Good. PPN Good.
19: KMA: Temp Good. PPN no signal.
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: good . PPN poor
21: CMCC Temp Good. PPN poor.

22: DWD Temp Good. PPN poor.

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