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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, June July August 2018 - compiled 7 September 2018


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies









Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Above normal temperatures (except far NW Scotland). Strongest anomalies in July and reduced anomalies for August

Rainfall. Below normal except parts of N mainly W Scotland. Wetter signal for AUgusr
Pressure. Above normal but less so in N in August with associated stronger W flow.



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in May for 2018 June July August


Original Summary - 170518 - Possibly a warmer than average summer especially for the southern half of the UK perhaps less strong a signal for nothern areas. Drier than normal too although the south of the UK may see a wet August.
Temperature Only NASA and METEOFRANCE forecast below normal temepratures with the main signal for near or slightly above normal temperatures this summer. Some models, like UKMO suggest larger positive anomalies. Rainfall several models signal drier early summer months with wetter August but not much agreement as to where the wetter areas might be.
Pressure is likely to be above normal across the UK.

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
Summary score: Temperature good. Rainfall Good. Pressure Good.
Multi model ensemble Temp poor PPN good. 1. Russia: Temp fair (good in England and Wales). PPN fair (good in England and Wales) .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair (tends to be a bit cool). PPN mostly good .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good. PPN good.
4. UKMO : Temp good. PPN fair but Good for England . PMSL good .
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN no signal .
6. KMA APCC : Temp no signal . PPN no signal .
7. JMA : Temp poor. PPN fair but good in S . PMSL
8. NMME : Temp good. PPN fair .
9. IMME - Temp poor. PPN poor.
10. BCC - Temp good . PPN good (monthly fair) .
11. NASA - Temp poor . PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp poor . PPN poor PMSL poor.
13. CanSips : Temp good . PPN fair .
14. SAWS: :
15. Copernicus Temp poor . PPN fair . PMSL fair
16. EC Temp good Temp fair . PPN good . PMSL good
17. MF Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL fair
18. JAMSTEC: Temp good . PPN fair .
19: KMA: Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL fair
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: poor PPN: fair PMSL: good

UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly





CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN3 TN7 TN2

TN6 TN8 TN5


ECMWF
EC


DATA available in April 2018 for June July August

No especially consistant signals.



DATA available in March 2018 for June July August


Some good indication from EC/Copernicus and NMME.

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