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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, June July August 2017 - compiled 3 August 2017
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies
UKMO Temperature: Near or above normal especially in the S and E of UK largely due to a warmer June,
PPN: Rainfall mostly above average except in central areas of UK. Note in parts of S Devon although rainfall was above normal the number of dry days was average hence when it rain the rain was heavier (greater quantity) rather than there being more wet days! Seasonal forecast rainfall is typically based on rain rates per day average over the month which does not quite match how rain is measured.
Follow link to
original forecast summary for detail of forecast.
DATA available in May for 2017 June July August 2017
Original Summary - Temperature forecast was good though slightly optimistic but idea of above
normal was OK especially in the S/E of UK. Rainfall was poor but the idea of June being wetter than July was OK
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
1. Russia: Temp no signal . PPN no signal .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair . PPN poor .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp fair. PPN fair.
4. UKMO : Temp fair . PPN poor . PMSL poor .
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN fair .
6. KMA APCC : Temp poor . PPN no signal .
7. JMA : Temp fair . PPN poor . PMSL
8. NMME : Temp fair - slightly warm especially July and August . PPN fair some good distribution ideas perhaps slightly under forecast the rain.
9. IMME - Temp good . PPN poor .
10. BCC - Temp good. PPN fair .
11. NASA - Temp good . PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp good . PPN fair.
13. CanSips : Temp good . PPN poor .
14. SAWS: : Temp poor . PPN poor .
15. Copernicus Temp fair . PPN poor . PMSL poor
16. EC Temp fair . PPN poor . PMSL poor
17. MF Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL fair
18. JAMTEC: no data
19: KMA: Temp fair . PPN poor . PMSL poor
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP N/a
NMME MAX and MIN n/a
NMME PPN rate:
NMME TEMP PROBS:
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
DATA available in April for 2017 June July August 2017
Mostoutput got temps OK, perhaps a little warm.
Some models, including Coprernicus system, gave indication of above normal rain - CFS lacked consistency. NMME under forecast rain.
DATA available in March for 2017 June July August 2017
Temps OK. Rainfall uncertainty stated.
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