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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, June July August 2016 - compiled 5 September 2016


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

UKMO


CPC MONTH and THREE MONTH (Graphics added when available) TEMP and PPN anomalies







CPC JJA Data for parts of S Devon has to high of rain total and temperatures are low.

UKMO data suggests that the "mean temperature for the summer was 14.9 C, which is 0.6 C above the long term average. Positive anomaly was larger by night than by day. June was 0.9 C warmer than average, July was 0.2 C above, and August was 0.6 C above. June's mean minimum temperature was the joint highest in a series from 1910." Rainfall above average for most areas, with the exception of southern England. June was exceptionally wet in East Anglia and the south-east with some areas having more than twice the normal rainfall, but it was slightly drier than average in northern and western Scotland. July and August were both drier than average in southern England, and July was exceptionally dry in some southern coastal counties. In contrast, July was wetter than average over Scotland and Northern Ireland, and August was wetter than average in parts of northern England and Scotland. The UK rainfall anomalies were: June (139%), July (104%) and August (99%)." (Met Office).
Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in May 2016 for June July August 2016


Comment on the summary: Hints that pressure would be higher in the S and that this might lead to below normal rain in the S was reasonable. Overall signal for above normal temperature was correct but monthly detail less good. Rainfall above normal away from the S was OK. Good signal for July to be drier.

1. Russia: Good stab at E of England being warmer and more rain in N. Little help elsewhere.
2. USA - CFS2 : Tends to be just a shade on the cool side so normal probably a reasonable forecast. PPN some indication for N/S split. Monthly detail unreliable especially poor for June.
3. UKMO Contingency: Good temperature and rainfall signal for June. Season temp OK rainfall uncertain - was above I suggested below UKMO said finely balanced.
4. UKMO : Tempertaire OK. Rainfall some hints at above in N but
5. USA - IRI : Typical above normal temp forecast. Rain forecast not helpful.
6. KMA APCC : Reasonable temp and rainfall hints but detail lacking in monthly.
7. JMA : Pressure OK but June not good. Temp to cold but split OK. PPN not good.
8. NMME : Monthly data gave a very good guide with PPN and a fairly good indication fopr temperature although June was warmer than suggested. Min temp anomalies could have been better.
9. IMME : Not helpful.
12. BCC : Temps overly cold. PPN good N/S split.
11. Brazil : Not helpful
12. NASA : Temp and PPN fair.
13. CanSips : teps fair PPN poor.



CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 080216





DATA available in April 2016 for June July August

Summary was good although August rainfall less so. UKMO and NMME did quite well. UKMO picked out drier South and wetter North in two category but not in other categories.


DATA available in March 2016 for June July August 2016

Summary reasonable. Month to month detail not good. Drier July in S picked out.


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