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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, June July August 2015 - compiled 10 Sept 2015

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

CPC MONTH and if available the THREE MONTH (CPC 3 month added 250915) TEMP and PPN anomalies

UKMO data suggests:
TEMP Depending on averaging period used by models and statistics - near normal but cooler in W and N seems fair.
PPN: Drier June except N Scotland then wetter although NW England and parts of Central England were drier. Overall though above normal main theme.

Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in MAY 2015 for Jun Jul Aug 2015

IRI EL Nino statistical relationship suggested normal or above normal - did not get the drier central areas and over stated the wetter in east and underplayed the wetter in S somewhat - however El Nino just starting to become strong and El Nina probs also allow for wetter summer in UK.
Overall Inconclusive.

Comment on the summary: Drier start to summer was correct hence with average rain implied wetter July or August. Near normal temps was fair but warmer was incorrect and as could be seen there were doubts above type of summer with signals for unsettled.
1. Russia: fairly good temp and rainfall indication.
2. USA - CFS2 : temp near normal was fair and rainfall gave indication of drier start and some above normal rainfall in places.
3. UKMO Contingency: not helpfull at getting the correct theme
4. UKMO : reasonable temperature split but rainfall not especially good.
5. USA - IRI : not a help.
6. KMA APCC : hint at cooler in NW otherwise no clear sginals
7. JMA : fair with cooler but rainfall not a good guide
8. NMME : just a little on warm side (so near normal was OK and gave some hints at cooler in W and E) and overly dry. Gave hints at E being warmer.
9. IMME - temp distribution good but rainfall not good.
10. BCC - no especially good signals although temp mostly below normal and some indication of above normal rain
11. NASA - poor overall especailly month by month
12. Brazil: temp distribution hinted at but rainfall not correct

CFS2 mean TEMP (MAX MIN not shown)

CFS2 mean PPN


NMME TEMP: mean data




DATA available in APR 2015 for Jun Jul August 2015

Summary: gave idea of cooler in W and hinted at above normal rain in S

DATA available in MAR 2015 for Jun Jul August 2015

Summary: Idea of drier start to summer was stated also the idea of an unsettled summer. The idea of being nearer the 1961-90 means than the 1981-2010 was correct. Did not state the wetter types for the S

Any questions E Mail Mike

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