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UKMO data for Summer(JJA)
UKMO states that the UK mean temperature was 0.5 C above the 1981-2010 average - not as warm as summer 2013.
June and July were both warmer than average, but it was the coolest August since 1993,
the first colder than average month for the UK since November 2013.
Overall the UK had 108% of average summer rainfall."
USA CPC data broadly in agreement - see graphics below.
Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, June July August 2014 - compiled 060914


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts









See orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in MAY for June July August 2014

Summaries were generally good especially the idea of wetter later summer.
Summary - Summary - 260514 - suggestion for a weakly unsettled summer period with warm spells, hence overall above normal temps (fairly high confidence in above average). Risk of some heavy rain more especially in S but mostly near normal rain. (low confidence in rain amounts). Summary - 200514 - consistent signal for above normal temps perhaps well above normal. Rainfall normal with hints at June drier/warmer and August wetter. Risk of well above normal rain in S (could be in short burts rather than prolonged rain) Summary - 130514 - Data so far suggests that early summer likely to be drier than later (though not a completely settled period) with temps overall above normal. Signal weaker in N Scotland where less settled more likely.
1. Russia: fair
2. USA - FSU : good indication of unsettled later OK fair with temps
3. USA - CFS2 : altough close to normal so OK did not give a good idea of distrobution warmer/drier.
4. UK : TEmp OK and PPN hinting at wetter spell.
5. UK contingency: above normal temp OK PPN poor having gone for wetter June then near normal implied drier laterl.
6. USA - NASA : hinted at drier July than other months otherwise only fair.
7. USA - IRI : above normal temps OK PPn no help overall though was near normal.
8. APCC - not correct
9. JMA - did very well sugesting the warmer and wetter months
10. NMME good with less warm August but did not go colder than normal. PPN normal not so good.
11. IMME not helpfull - just normal
12. Brazil fair for season overall
13. BCC Temps on the cool side PPN good.
14. GFDL-FLORb01 - not better than other output

Original graphics from May 2014 graphics no longer online but can be made available


DATA available in APRIL 2014 for June July August 2014

No one model came out better - indications of rainfall problems in several was OK and temps above normal. No sign of colder AUg though.
DATA available in MAR 2014 for June July August 2014
No one model came out better - indications of rainfall problems in several was OK and temps above normal. No sign of colder AUg though.



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