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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2020 January February March - compiled 3 April 2020


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN3 TN7 TN2

ECMWF
EC

WMO
WMO

UKMO
UKMO


CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN6 TN8 TN5

NASA JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Three month period above average but did anyone get the trend to cooler/near normal in March?

Rainfall. Three month period above average but largely due to a very wet February, Janurary and March near or below average

Pressure. Below to the north and above in the south.



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in December for 2019 for 2020 January February March



Original Summary - 181219 - Main signal for the season is for above normal temperatures or at worst normal values, the latter perhaps more likely across Eire and the west of UK. Rainfall is expected to be above normal especially across the north and west but parts of the SE and E of England and NE Scotland could be nearer normal. Less marked indication for above normal in March. Windier than normal typical of westerly types with lower pressure across the north and normal or higher values near or to the south of England.4.

Comment: Temperature good three month forecast with some idea of less mild in north later. Rainfall was OK with the abover average indication but not the drier east of UK Jan and Mar swamped by the very wet Feb. Pressure pattern and hint at windier periods was good. Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
Graphics - very few models got the temperature trend OK. NMME: hint at lower temperature anomaly in March. Rain above normal but poor detail. CFS2: similar but less strong temperature hint. Rain above normal but poor detail. Did better with data supplied to WMO? ECMWF: did not get the temperature trend but got some idea of less mild in N. Some idea that March could be drier/near normal. NASA: did not get the temperature trend. Got a better idea with drier March but got Jan wrong.
TEXT score based on 3 month overall average
1. Russia: Temp poor . PPN poor .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good . PPN good.
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good . PPN good .
4. UKMO : Temp good. PPN fair . PMSL good
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN no signal .
6. KMA APCC : Temp good . PPN no signal .
7. JMA : Temp good . PPN good . PMSL good
8. NMME : Temp good. PPN fair .
9. IMME
10. BCC - Temp good . PPN poor .
11. NASA - Temp good . PPN good.
12. Brazil: Temp poor . PPN poor .
13. CanSips : Temp good . PPN poor .
14. SAWS: :
15. Copernicus Temp good . PPN good . PMSL good
16. EC Temp fair . PPN good . PMSL fair
17. MF Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL fair
18. JAMSTEC:
19: KMA:
20: ECMWF (monthly) see graphics above
21: CMCC Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL good
22: DWD Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL good




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