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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2019 January Febuary March - compiled 3 April 2019


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP


UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN3 TN7 TN2

ECMWF (note ppn reversed colour scheme)
EC

CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies


UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN6 TN8 TN5

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Above normal for season but look for trend from normal in Jan to very mild Feb and mild March

Rainfall. Season below average. Look for drier Jan and Feb with wetter March.

Pressure. Above normal



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in December for 2018 January February March 2019


Original Summary - 191218 - UKMO contingency suggest colder, drier in north but the south uncertain, increased snow risk. Not supported by CFS2 17th which still has much of UK milder in January then near normal for Feb/Mar - check later updates. 161218 - Caution marked stratospheric warming occurring/forecast to occur next two weeks which might impact end of winter forecast. Main risk for colder types is N America and in Feb/Mar NE Europe and Russia leaving UK in milder SW types but this may change. Summary 161218 - above normal temperatures for season are likely due milder January but with February and March nearer normal but possibly trending colder for periods - although the S/SW may mostly escape this. Above normal precipitation in the S/SW (and SW Eire) and below in N/NW though perhaps increased snow risk in the North compared to average especially later February and into March. Wettest month could be January.

Result: Milder tyoe overall was correct but the monthly detail was poor. Colder types did not occur because unusually a drier milder type developed with SW winds as hinted at inn the 19th update. More usually a colder type associated with easterlies might have been expected following a marked stratospheric warming of 60% of occassions? Precipitation forecast was poor for the season and monthly.


Please view graphics to compare month by month output.
Table below is for seasonal text forecast.

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.

Temp above normal = good Rain below normal = Good 1. Russia: Temp no signal. PPN poor.
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair. PPN fair .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp poor. PPN good.
4. UKMO : Temp fair. PPN fair. PMSL poor
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal. PPN poor.
6. KMA APCC : Temp good. PPN poor.
7. JMA : Temp good. PPN fair. PMSL poor
8. NMME : Temp good PPN poor.
9. IMME - Temp fair. PPN poor.
10. BCC : Temp good. PPN good .
12. Brazil: Temp fair. PPN fair. PMSL poor.
15. Copernicus: Temp fair. PPN poor. PMSL poor
16. EC Temp fair. PPN fair. PMSL poor
17. MF Temp fair. PPN fair. PMSL poor
21: CMCC Temp fair . PPN fair. PMSL fair
22: DWD Temp fair. PPN fair. PMSL poor


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