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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2016 December 2017 January and February - compiled 5th April 2017


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

UKMO


CPC MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies






UKMO data suggests UK was slightly sunnier than normal for the three months although February was cloudy (parts of SW England were cloudy in March too and the Teignmough area was slightly cloudier for each month). Temperatures were above average although E of England was below average in Jan and well above in March. Rainfall UK was below average largely due to drier January although Wales N England and S Scotland where wetter - see individual months. Overall montly anomalies suggest below normal rain for UK, N ireland, Scotland, England but not Wales. These regional splits no a help as the wetter zone extended for SE Eire across Wales to N England and S Scotland with the NW and SE being more definately drier.
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Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in December 2016 for 2017 January February March


Comment on the summary: Temperature very good with colder Jan in S and for above normal overall but not correct with Feb being nearer normal - remain above. Pressure for season good as was idea of remaining with mobile types. Rainfall got the idea that later could be wetter than earlier. Later ideas from CFS for drier January were correct as was temperature trend. Overall rainfall drier in SE was good but wetter in NW only fair.

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
1. Russia: Temp fair. Rain similar probs for above/normal/below
2. USA - CFS2 : Good runs around mid month with regards Temp and PPN. Earlier and late in month runs fair.
3. UKMO Contingency: Temperature good signal for milder Feb and March. Pressure good (but lacked signal for lower PMSL in Feb and March. Rainfall fair.
4. UKMO : Temperature good signal. PPN fair but got some idea of the wetter areas
5. USA - IRI : Temp good. PPN no signal
6. KMA APCC : Temp fair. PPN no signal
7. JMA : Temp good but monthly fair PPN fair for season better with monthly trends PMSL poor
8. NMME : Temp season good monthly good. PPN Season fair. Monthly good trend.
9. IMME : Temp season good monthly fair. PPN fair but monthly poor
10. BCC : Temp poor PPN poor
11. Brazil : Temp fair PPN fair
12. NASA : Temp good Monthly good PPN fair but got the trend correect
13. CanSips :Temp fair PPN poor
14. SAWS: Not available


CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP N/a





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN n/a






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly





DATA available in November 2016 for 2017 January February March

No model especially good, several got above normal temps but not monthly sequence. Rainfall fair at best.


DATA available in October 2016 for 2017 January February March

No model especially good, several got above normal temps but not monthly sequence. Rainfall fair at best.


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