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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, January February and March 2016 - compiled 6 April 2016

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

CPC MONTH/UK and if available the THREE MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies

JMA PMSL three month mean and anomaly - below normal westerly mean. March was slightly above due to almost two weeks of high pressure.

UKMO suggests that March was cooler than normal in England and Wales but not elsewhere with Scotland and N Ireland cooler than normal in Feb (1981-2010). For the three months overall all areas above average temps. Scotland and N Ireland were drier than normal in March as was the UK overall but not England and Wales. For the three months all areas average out above normal.
Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in December for Jan Feb March 2016

IRI EL Nino statistical relationship suggested above normal rain which was correct.
IRI climate impacts.

IRI statistical probs indication for normal or above normal rain.

Original Summary - was pretty good "There is agreement that most of the Uk and Eire may well keep above normal temperatures for the three month season overall although the N/NW may well be nearer normal. Indications for a colder spell are less clear but some output suggests that Feb may be colder than normal in the N, perhaps normal to colder in the S. This colder/less mild spell in the S of UK may well start mid to late Jan until about mid Feb although for SW England this may be a shorter period. Precipitation signals are mixed but suggest above normal for the three months as a whole but trending to nearer normal for March. There is less clear indication for Feb being drier. Snow risk lowest in the SW and S probably normal risk in the north."
1. Russia: Partly good for the S rather than the N.
2. USA - CFS2 : Mostly good but some month to month detail correct.
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp extremes not a help. Fairly reasonable rainfall guide.
4. UKMO : Rain and temps OK but regional detail not so good. Pressure a little on the high side but idea of no long period high OK.
5. USA - IRI : Poor PPN but temperature OK.
6. KMA APCC :fair temps and PPN
7. JMA : Presssure a little on the hiogh side but mean flow Ok. PPN not so good in S. Temps fair.
8. NMME : Rainfall signal OK but temperature monthly detail misleading.
9. IMME - Temps OPK rain detail less good but got the above normal for S.
10. BCC - temp OK PPN not good
11. NASA - not helpful
12. Brazil: RAS bettern than KUO output
13: SAWS: Temp good rain quite good.

CFS2 mean TEMP

CFS2 mean PPN


NMME TEMP: mean data




Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly 080815 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server

Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS means Precip anomaly (ignore scale) 080815 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server

DATA available in Nov 2015 for Jan Feb Mar 2016

Summary: CFS2, SAWS, BCC gave good guides others not so good.

DATA available in October 2015 for Jan Feb Mar 2016

Summary: NCEP best others a little on the cool side with not enough rain.

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