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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, Jan Feb Mar 2015 - compiled 16 April 2015


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts



CPC MONTH and THREE MONTH (Graphics added when available) TEMP and PPN anomalies



UKMO
TEMP: data for N Ireland and Wales shows slightly below normal temps elsewhere close to normal/slightly above with the UK overall anomaly plus 0.1C when compared to 1981 to 2010 data (all areas above normal if using 1961-1990 data). Feb had largest negative anomaly.
PPN: England and Wales also UK overall had below normal rain (1981-2010 comparison data) but Scotland and N Ireland were above normal. (Part of NE England looked drier than normal). Jan above normal. Feb was below normal in all areas. March uk 100% of normal but split NW/SE wetter/drier.
CPC data
Hints at Cumbria being wetter overall otherwise shows similar NW/SE distribution. Temps not far from normal.
Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in December 2014 for Jan Feb Mar 2015


Comment on the summary: Overall indication for UK as whole OK but missed the drier east and the trend to drier after wettter first month.
1. Russia: Temp good PPN normal was correct
2. USA - CFS2 : good with temps near normal and month by month gave cooling trend - see graphics below. PPN also quite good with some idea of distribution and less wet March
3. UKMO : Temp OK PPN not so good no indication of distribution
4. UKMO Contingency - Temp near normal good. PPN Jan not so good but season OK.
5. USA - IRI : temp still a little warm in outout but ppn ok.
6. KMA APCC : Temp OK but a little warm perhaps. PPN fair with some month to month variation indicated.
7. JMA : Temps OK with some good indication at month to month variation. PPN. fair with some fairly good hints at distribution later in season
8. NMME : Temps just a little on the warm side but month by month gave cooling trend - see graphics below. PPN season ok with some hints at distribution NW/SE.
9. IMME - Temp distribution OK PPN main signal OK but less so in the S.
12. BCC - Temp signal OK but not so good with distribution E/W PPN signal good.
11. Brazil - Temp and PPN fair
12. NASA - TEmp some reasonable ideas of temp distibution and good overall.PPN not so good but some fairly good stabs at month by month variation

CFS2 MAX MIN




NMME MAX and MIN




NMME TEMP: mean data not available
NMME TEMP probs


NMME PPN: not available
NMME PPN: Probs



DATA available in November 2014 for Jan Feb Mar 2015


Summary: most output got the idea of near normal temp for season but not the trend month by month. PPN not especially good in any output.


DATA available in October 2014 for Jan Feb Mar 2015

Summary: CPC hintes at cooling trend over season as does NASA UK to warm. PPN BCC gave NW/SE split OK as did some CPC output, other output not especially helpfull.



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