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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, Jan Feb Mar 2014 - compiled 19 April 2014



Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


Ongoing problems with CPC rain anomalies - concerns E mailed to CPC but no response.


Overall well above normal temperatures and rainfall but February drier than normal - UKMO Cliame
See also Met IE Monthly Data


Follow links above to orignal forecast summary for more detail of forecast.

DATA available in December 2013 January February and March 2014


The summary for normal or above temps and rain was OK.

1. Russia: PPN fair temp not so good
2. USA - FSU :
3. USA - CFS2 : seems to under forecast tmpsature had better ideaswith PPN with less oon later in period but detail not good month to month
4. UKMO : Frequent westerly types was OK but temp and rain not especially helpful
4a. UKMO COntingency - some indication of drier in later part of 3 month period was good.
5. USA - NASA :
6. USA - IRI : temp OK PPN little use.
7. KMA : ppn not so good. Temps fair.
8. JMA - season temp OK but monthly got Feb incorrect was not colder. PPN seems to be underforecast
9. NMME - not helpful
9a. IMME - not helpful
10. BCC - temp OK ppn not so good.


DATA available in November 2013 for JAN FEB MAR 2014


The summary 191113 - was ok with normal or above normal temps and normal and in W above normal rain.

CFS2 temps under forecast ppn above normal was OK.
UKMO temp forecast good ppn poor
NASA temps fair ppn not so good.
FSU temps not good ppn poor
BCC - temp and ppn fair at best.


DATA available in October 2013 for JAN FEB MAR 2014


no output was especially good, some indication of higher tain totals in UKMO and CFS.


Mail Mike here

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