Verification index
Back to current Forecast issue



Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2019 July August September - compiled 5th September


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN7 TN2 TN3

ECMWF
EC

UKMO
UKMO

CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN8 TN5 TN6

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Above average for season with stribger anomalies in July and lower anaomalies overall in September.
Rainfall. Above average for the season except perhaps in parts of E/SE England. Looking for drier start in south UK and wetter end of three month season but in the N a drier/near normal end of season. Percentages suggest higher wetter anomalies in the north of UK.

Pressure. Overall below normal but September above normal. WSW mean flow.



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in June for July August September 2019


Original Summary text - Summary - 180619 - Slightly above normal temperature for the season (roughly 50% above 31% normal 19% below normal) and possibly each month. Rainfall above normal most likely (roughly 50% above, 28% normal, 22% below normal). No agreement between models for any month being drier and multi model ensembles trend to similar probs for above, normal or below normal. CFS2 has indicated drier August and September but no real consistency. Small signal for north being wetter and south drier or nearer normal.
Comment - 041019 - Temperature forecast was correct. Rainfall was also correct and there was a higher wetter anomaly in the North for the season.

Graphics: NMME had a good trend for temperature anomalies and fair but incorrect in detail rain anomalies. Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
Comment:
1. Russia: Temp fair . PPN fair .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp poor . PPN poor som idea of trend .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good . PPN good .
4. UKMO : Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL fair - hints at above in S
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN no signal .
6. KMA APCC : Temp no signal . PPN no signal .
7. JMA : Temp good. PPN fair . PMSL good but slightly too H
8. NMME : Temp good . PPN poor .
9. IMME - Temp good . PPN poor .
10. BCC - Temp fair . PPN poor .
11. NASA - Temp good. PPN good .
12. Brazil: Temp fair. PPN mostly good .
13. CanSips : Temp good. PPN mostly good .
14. SAWS: : Temp poor. PPN poor.
15. Copernicus Temp no signal . PPN no signal . PMSL no signal
16. EC Temp good. PPN no signal . PMSL poor
17. MF Temp good. PPN no signal . PMSL no signal
18. JAMSTEC: NO DATA.
19: KMA: Temp good. PPN poor . PMSL poor
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: fair. PPN poor .
21: CMCC Temp no signal . PPN no signal . PMSL no signal
22: DWD Temp no signal . PPN no signal . PMSL no signal

Mail Mike here

Return to:

Go to Obs and Sat pics Go to Forecast links Go to Mobile phone links Go to Natural Hazards links Go to climate links Go to UK Ozone data