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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, July August September 2018 - compiled 20 October 2018

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. July well above average followed by near normal August and September although N Ireland and Scotland were colder in September. Overall the 3 month season was above average.

Rainfall. July was below average with Aug and Sept near average but above in Wales and Scotland. month season below average except perhaps in NW England.
Pressure. For the 3 month season was above average, especially in July.

Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in June for 2018 July August September

Original Summary - Was good for temperature rainfall and pressure for the 3 month season and hinting at a wetter August.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
No signal for any centre for less above normnal/near normal in July after warmer May/June.
1. Russia: Temp good . PPN fair .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good . PPN good .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good . PPN good .
4. UKMO : Temp good . PPN good . PMSL good .
5. USA - IRI : Temp fair . PPN fair .
6. KMA APCC : Temp fair . PPN poor .
7. JMA : Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL poor
8. NMME : Temp good . PPN fair .
9. IMME - Temp poor . PPN poor .
10. BCC - Temp good . PPN fair .
11. NASA - Temp fair . PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp good . PPN good . PMSL: good
13. CanSips : Temp fair . PPN poor .
14. SAWS:
15. Copernicus Temp good . PPN good . PMSL good
16. EC Temp good Temp fair . PPN good . PMSL good
17. MF Temp poor . PPN fair . PMSL good
19: KMA: Temp fair . PPN poor . PMSL poor
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: fair PPN: poor
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.



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