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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, July August September 2018 - compiled 20 October 2018
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies
Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. July well above average followed by near normal August and September although N Ireland and Scotland were colder in September. Overall the 3 month season was above average.
Rainfall. July was below average with Aug and Sept near average but above in Wales and Scotland. £ month season below average except perhaps in NW England.
Pressure. For the 3 month season was above average, especially in July.
Follow link to
original forecast summary for detail of forecast.
DATA available in June for 2018 July August September
Original Summary - Was good for temperature rainfall and pressure for the 3 month season and hinting at a wetter August.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
No signal for any centre for less above normnal/near normal in July after warmer May/June.
1. Russia: Temp good . PPN fair .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good . PPN good .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good . PPN good .
4. UKMO : Temp good . PPN good . PMSL good .
5. USA - IRI : Temp fair . PPN fair .
6. KMA APCC : Temp fair . PPN poor .
7. JMA : Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL poor
8. NMME : Temp good . PPN fair .
9. IMME - Temp poor . PPN poor .
10. BCC - Temp good . PPN fair .
11. NASA - Temp fair . PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp good . PPN good . PMSL: good
13. CanSips : Temp fair . PPN poor .
15. Copernicus Temp good . PPN good . PMSL good
16. EC Temp good Temp fair . PPN good . PMSL good
17. MF Temp poor . PPN fair . PMSL good
19: KMA: Temp fair . PPN poor . PMSL poor
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: fair PPN: poor
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
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