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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, July August September 2017 - compiled 6 October 2017


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies








UKMO Temp: Very slighly below average 0 to 0.5C negative anom but N Ireland the coolest. PPN: UK as whole above average each month and for the three months. Sunshine slightly below average.
. Summary for verification each month near or slightly below average temperature - near average accepted good. Rainfall mostly above average but below in SE Eire July NE England, S Eire and parts of westcountry in August and SE England in September. Above average marked as good.


Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in May for 2017 July August September 2017



Original Summary - Poor with regards to temperature and rainfall but some idea about wetter September.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.


1. Russia: Temp poor. PPN poor
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp Good . PPN poor .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp Poor but below was indicated in 25% cluster. PPN good
4. UKMO : Temp poor. PPN poor PMSL poor
5. USA - IRI :Temp no signal . PPN no signal
6. KMA APCC : Temp poor . PPN no signal
7. JMA :Temp poor. PPN poor PMSL poor
8. NMME : Temp poor. PPN poor
9. IMME - Temp poor. PPN poor
10. BCC - Temp poor. PPN poor
11. NASA - Temp fair . PPN poor

12. Brazil: (KUO) Temp good . PPN fair PMSL good

13. CanSips :Temp fair . PPN poor
.
14. SAWS: : Temp good . PPN poor
15. Copernicus Temp poor . PPN no signal PMSL poor
16. EC Temp poor. PPN poor PMSL poor
17. MF Temp poor. PPN poor PMSL poor
18. JAMTEC: Temp Temp . PPN PMSL
19: KMA: Temp poor . PPN poor PMSL no signal


CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP N/a





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN n/a






NMME Temp:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly





DATA available in May for 2017 July August Sep 2017

Generally poor CFS again Ok with temps withing its normal span. PPN signal poor.


DATA available in April for 2017 July August Sep 2017

Generally poor CFS again Ok with temps withing its normal span. PPN signal poor.


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