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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, July August September 2016 - compiled 10 October 2016


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

UKMO


CPC MONTH and THREE MONTH (Graphics added if available) TEMP and PPN anomalies




UKMO data agrees with above normal temperatures for the 3 month season. Has above normal rain for the UK but in England below normal.
CPC Data for parts of S Devon has to high of rain total and temperatures are low.


Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in June 2016 for July August September 2016


Comment on the summary: Was pretty good with the NW/SE split in rainfall and the above normal temperatures.

1. Russia: not a good guiide
2. USA - CFS2 : Gave hints at the NW/SE nature of the rain but was perhaos a tad cood although near normal was OK
3. UKMO Contingency: UKMO statement was OK
4. UKMO : Some idea about rainfall distribution. Temps OK.
5. USA - IRI : Temps no better than usual and ppn not a good guiide
6. KMA APCC : Temps not a help precip fairly good
7. JMA : season OK but month to month detail poor
8. NMME : Good with precip, fair with temps.
9. IMME : not a good guide
12. BCC : Temp no good PPN reasonal guide
11. Brazil : not a good guiide
12. NASA : PPN and Temps OK.
13. CanSips : not a good guiide



CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 080216





DATA available in May 2016 for July August September 2016

Summary Good summary. NMME monthly detail fairly good.


DATA available in April 2016 for July August September 2016

Summary OK. NMME graphics better for July/Aug than June


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