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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, July August September 2015 - compiled 3 October 2015


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

CPC MONTH and (211115) THREE MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies





CPC temps mostly not far from normal/slightly on cold sidge of normal. Notably drier SEPT except in SE England.

UKMO data suggests:
TEMP Compared to 1961-1990 temperatures were above normal except in Wales and N Ireland BUT compared to 1981 to 2010 the period was cooler than average.
PPN: Rainfall compared to 81-10 averages for the three months JAS was below normal in Scotland but above elsewhere wioth Uk overall just above normal. There are only slight differences between the 61-90 and 81-10 averaging periods.

Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in June 2015 for Jul Aug Sep 2015


IRI EL Nino statistical relationship suggested mod probs for wetter then normal in E of UK, normal in Eire and some other western parts but mod probs below normal in some central areas

Original Summary - 290615 - some consensus for near normal temps risk of below normal is perhaps highest in N/NW. CFS also lendin support to UK normal or below normal rain in this period but with month to month variability still hinting at AUG being wetter in places. Summary - 140615 - some agreement for normal or above normal temps (except NASA). PPN bigger spread of solutions but NW/SE split Wetter/drier Comment on the summary: Aug was indeed wetter but not in Scotland which was wetter in July. Temps at least did not indicate a warm summer.
1. Russia: temps fair precip not so good.
2. USA - CFS2 : near normal temps OK ish - was cooler.PPN there were indication of the drier Sept except in SE and above normal for otherw areas in Jul and AUG - fair attempt?
3. UKMO Contingency: Temperaure signal not especially good but doubts expressed. PPN signal difficult but the idea of above normal was shown.
4. UKMO : not so good as later continuity issue
5. USA - IRI : not helpful
6. KMA APCC : temp signal for cooler was OK PPN signal poor
7. JMA : reasonable signal for cooler and gave some hints at ppn changes for Sept.
8. NMME : not so good
9. IMME - poor
10. BCC - not so good<
11. NASA - detail not so good
12. Brazil: temps fair

CFS2 mean TEMP (MAX MIN not shown)



CFS2 mean PPN


NMME MAX and MIN



NMME TEMP: mean data


NMME TEMP probs


NMME PPN:


NMME PPN: Probs



DATA available in May 2015 for Jul August Sep 2015


Summary: BCC China got the colder than normal sigbal but precip was poor. Mostly there was no especally good model.

DATA available in Apr 2015 for Jul August Sep 2015

Summary: BCC China and UKMO suggested colder with BCC also going for above normal rain. Otherwise no model stands out as being especially good.




Any questions E Mail Mike

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