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UKMO shows that the UK mean temperature overall was above normal in the three months JAS despite colder August and that
rainfall was below normal again despite an wetter August.


Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, July August September 2014 - compiled 041014


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts









See orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in JUNE for July August September 2014

Summaries as of 160614 correct with above normal temps but not with above normal rain.
1. Russia: above normal temps correct - PPN no signal
2. USA - FSU : temp OK PPN not so good some indication of partial below normal
3. USA - CFS2 : temps forecast a bit cool (often is) PPN not so good although drier SEP indicated in some output which was good.
4. UK : Got the idea of higher pressure and hinted at below normal rain and above normal temps though also hinted at well above normal rain 40% in places (August?)
5. UK contingency: Temp forecast OK Rain forecast poor for July but got the overall below normal
6. USA - NASA : overall above normal OK did not get cooler August not good with rain/drier
7. USA - IRI : above normal temps OK (mostly forecasts warm) PPN not good..
8. APCC - not helpfull
9. JMA - Above normal OK hinted at SEP being warmer but not cooler August. PPN Poor
10. NMME not helpfull
11. IMME not helpfull
12. Brazil not helpfull
13. BCC Temp OK PPN not good.
14. GFDL-FLORb01 - got the warmer SEP but not cooler AUG - not helpfull
graphics no longer online but can be made available
CFS2 MAX MIN 130614
DATA available in MAY 2014 for for July August September 2014

CFS2 hinted at the drier SEP but most models did not get the cooler/wetter AUG correct altough most hinted at above normal overall temps but not overall below normal rain.
DATA available in APRIL 2014 for July August September

APCC and UK gave the best hint at slightly drier and warm period.


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