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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, July August September 2013 - compiled 27 Oct 2013



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UK and Eire temps above normal, less so in parts of E and S England. UKMO data shows anomalies higher in July than other months but all positive.
Rainfall mostly below normal but with local wet areas N England and SW Midlands for example - confirmed by UKMO monthly data - mainly July/Aug.

See orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in JUNE 2013 for July August September 2013

On balance CFS2 PPN gave some idea - most models a little cool?
1. Russia: Went for normal temps but suggested E England cooler so had reasonal distribution but on the cold side. PPn not a help
2. USA - FSU : some idea of above normal temps but PPN not good.
3. USA - CFS2 : Early runs not as god as later runs. Probably within the normal band but perhaps a little on cool side again suggestion of E a little cooler UK. PPN fair stab at drier than normal.
4. UK : Temps poor - too cold. PPN not a good guide - COntingency output also not a good guide.
5. USA - NASA : on the cool side, PPN not good
6. USA - IRI : most likely warm catagory was correct
7. KMA - again on the cool side of normal was not correct, PPN not a help.
8. JMA - another model forecast on the cool side. PPN not good.
9. NMME - went for normal temp and ppn again not a help

DATA available in MAY 2013 for July August September 2013
No better signal than June data.

DATA available in APRIL 2013 for July August September 2013
UK and CFS2 gave hint at above normal temps and below normal rain.

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