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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2021 Feb Mar Apr - compiled 2 MAY 2021
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP
EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
ECMWF
WMO March 2020 data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.
Probability combined.
BOM monthly
Canada monthly
DWD monthly
UKMO monthly
Moscow monthly
SEOUL monthly
Tokyo monthly
Toulouse monthly
Washington monthly
ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies
EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly
UKMO summary
Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Three month average below normal due to cold April, except in N Ireland where not cold enough in April to offset milder Feb abd March.
Rainfall. Below normal thanks to very dry April and below average March after above average in February.
Sunshine Above average for season and each month except N Ireland (2 months below) and Scotland (1 month below).
Pressure. Above average for season, below average in Feb but above in March and April
Follow link to
original forecast summary for detail of forecast.
DATA available in January for 2021 Feb Mar Apr
Summary - 160121 -
Temperature: For the three months overall the main indication is for above average temperatures or at worst near normal in western areas. Looking at the month to month detail western areas (Ireland, W Scotland, Wales and perhaps SW England, could be nearer normal with a chance of below normal in February and/or March).
Precipitation: Three month overall probably normal or above normal but a chance that N Scotland could be below average. Mixed signals in the month to month variation of wetter areas but some agreement that April could be drier than precdeding months.
Comment:
Temperature: Seasonal forecast not correct. Very cold April not indicated but NMME and CFS showed lower warm anomalies in April.
Precipitation: Good signal for April being a drier month - NMME, CFS2, Beijing, Brazil and to some extent Moscow, but overal indication of above average was not correct.
Scoring for the three month season will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
1. Russia : Temp fair . PPN no signal .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair . PPN fair .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp poor . PPN poor .
4. UKMO : Temp poor. PPN poor. PMSL poor
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN no signal.
6. KMA APCC : Temp poor . PPN no signal .
7. JMA : Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
8. NMME : Temp poor. PPN fair .
9. WMO multi : Temp poor. PPN poor.
10. BCC : Temp poor . PPN good .
11. NASA : Temp poor . PPN fair .
12. Brazil (WMO): Temp poor . PPN fair .
13. CanSips : Temp poor . PPN poor .
14. IMME : Temp poor . PPN poor .
15. Copernicus Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
16. CMCC Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
17: DWD Temp poor . PPN poor. PMSL poor
18. ECMWF Temp poor . PPN poor. PMSL poor
19 JMA Temp fair . PPN poor . PMSL poor
20 UKMO Temp poor. PPN poor. PMSL poor
21. MF Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL fair
22 NCEP Temp poor. PPN poor . PMSL poor
23 ECMWF (monthly) Temp: no signal. PPN fair
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