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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2020 February March APril - compiled 3 May2020

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.




EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN8 TN5 TN6 NASA JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly

UKMO summary

Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Season above average but only slightly in March. Feb and April very mild.

Rainfall. Season above average but mostly because February was very wet. Mar and Apr were drier than average. Did monthly models get this?

Pressure. Season shows up as slightly below avergae but this waa due to February. Mar and Apr both above average.

Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in January for 2020 February March April

Original Summary - 160120 - Temperature: The majority of solutions suggest above normal temeprature for the three months and each month only BoM and Moscow have colder solutions. Allowing for over warm/over cold solutions it looks likely that after a mild start there may be a trend towards normal values, at least in the south, for either March or April but overall the three month average is likely to be above normal. Precipitation: WMO multi model has several above or below normal solutions which cancel. The main theme looks to be a risk of above normal in western exposures, especially but not only NW Scotland, and a chance of below normal in eastern areas and perhaps also the south. Month to month data inconsistent but hints at wetter start and drier end to the three month period. Pressure anomalies suggest lower than average pressure to the north and above over or to the south, hence a windier period than average especially in the north.

Comment: There were some good indications for above average temperatures and the drier trend.
NASA was one of the few monthly anomalies that picked out the near normal March and only UKMO and perhaps to lesser extent ECMWF picked the very much milder April.
CFS2 and NMME indicated drier for April as did Brazil and to a lesser extent Toulouse - some others did but were mostly drier throughout so rejected if did not get wet start to season.

Scoring (for the season unless stated) will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
1. Russia: Temp poor. PPN no signal.
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair. PPN fair.
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good. PPN fair.
4. UKMO : Temp good. PPN fair. PMSL fair
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal. PPN poor.
6. KMA APCC : Temp good. PPN poor.
7. JMA : Temp good. PPN poor. PMSL good
8. NMME : Temp good. PPN fair.
9. WMO : Temp good. PPN fair.
10. BCC : Temp fair. PPN poor.
11. NASA - Temp good. PPN good.
12. Brazil: Temp poor. PPN poor.
13. CanSips : Temp good. PPN poor.
14. SAWS: :
15. Copernicus Temp good. PPN fair. PMSL fair
16. EC Temp good. PPN fair. PMSL good
17. MF Temp good. PPN fair. PMSL fair
19: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: good. PPN fair. PMSL good
20: CMCC Temp good. PPN fair. PMSL good
21: DWD Temp good. PPN fair. PMSL fair

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