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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2019 Febuary March April - compiled 5 May 2019


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP


UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN3 TN7 TN2

ECMWF
EC

UKMO
UKMO
CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies


UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN6 TN8 TN5

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Above normal

Rainfall. Wales and N Ireland above normal elsewhere below normal. Look for wetter March signal.

Pressure. Above normal



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in January for February March April 2019


Original Summary - Summary 170119: Temperature for the season probably near or slightly above normal but colder than normal start to February and near normal for March. Uncertain duration of colder types, could return to less cold by mid February but may be later. Milder April to follow. Precicitation: increased snow risk in February especially for parts of England and Wales although the south of SW England not such a high risk for snow at low levels except early in February. Above normal precipitation is likely in the south early and later in the north with the north starting below normal.

Result: Generally good temperature forecast but colder start to February over stated. Rainfall poor forecasts generally and month to month.


Please view graphics to compare month by month output.
Table below is for seasonal text forecast.

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
Comment:
1. Russia: Temp fair . PPN no signal..
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair . PPN fair but some good signals for March .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp poor. PPN poor most of UK (N Ireland and parts of Wales were wetter but mostly drier.) .
4. UKMO : Temp fair . PPN poor . PMSL poor
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN fair.
6. KMA APCC : Temp good. PPN poor .
7. JMA : Temp good. PPN poor . PMSL poor
8. NMME : Temp good. PPN fair.
9. IMME - Temp good. PPN poor.
10. BCC - Temp good. . PPN fair to good .
11. NASA - Temp good. . PPN poor.
12. Brazil: Temp poor. PPN poor.
13. CanSips : Temp fair. PPN fair.
14. 15. Copernicus Temp no signal . PPN poor.. PMSL poor.
16. EC Temp no signal. PPN poor. PMSL poor
17. MF Temp no signal. PPN no signal . PMSL no signal
18. JAMSTEC: Temp . PPN .
19: KMA:
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: poor.. PPN poor..
21: CMCC Temp no signal . PPN poor . PMSL poor
22: DWD Temp no signal. PPN fair . PMSL no signal



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