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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, February March April 2018 - compiled 6 May 2018
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies
Review of details looked for in seasonal forecasta.
Temperature for the season was below normal but will be looking for a signal of a change to above normal in April.
Precicitaion for the season was below normal in Scotland and N Ireland but above normal elsewhere. For England and Wales looking for a signal for drier Feb then wetter months following.
Pressure pressure for the season was below normal although initially above normal in February.
Follow link to
original forecast summary for detail of forecast.
DATA available in January for 2018 February March April
Original Summary -
"Comment - 250117 - CFS2 since above the 20th mean of 10 day output has jumped back to above normal rainfall with all area above normal temp.
Summary - 190117- Although the NASA output hints at the S or SW being colder in February most other available data suggests normal or above. All listed output (to date) indicates normal or above normal temperatures averaged over the three month period although there are hints that the S of the UK may be nearer normal and that the North is most likely to be above normal. PMSL is forecast to be above normal especially in the S of UK which leads to some suggestions that the S may be drier than normal, especially in February, but with the N/NW normal or above normal. Overall near normal precipitation is expected for the three month season. Month to month data has been unreliable of late but current output suggest March could be the wetter month for the W and S of UK and Eire and April for the N/NW of UK."
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
No signal for any centre for less above normal/near normal in July after warmer May/June.
Most oputput gave a poor signal for this season.
Summary: Temperature poor although some hints at colder start. Precipiation signal poor but some hints at wetter later months was good. Pressure poor but helped the idea of drier February which was good.
1. Russia: Temp poor. PPN poor but some idea of less wet in N .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp poor PPN fair
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp poor . PPN poor . Note the ised of a stratospheric warming pointed out risk of colder/drier Feb.
4. UKMO : Temp poor PPN poor PMSL .
5. USA - IRI : Temp poor. PPN no signal .
6. KMA APCC : Temp poor. PPN poor .
7. JMA : Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL
8. NMME : Temp poor . PPN poor.
9. IMME - Temp poor. PPN poor.
10. BCC - Temp poor. PPN poor .
11. NASA - Temp poor. PPN poor.
12. Brazil: Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL good.
13. CanSips : Temp poor . PPN fair.
14. SAWS: : Temp poor . PPN fair .
15. Copernicus N/A
16. EC N/A
17. MF N/A
19: KMA: N/A
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP
NMME MAX and MIN not available
NMME PPN rate:
NMME TEMP PROBS:
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
DATA available in November for 2018 February March April
Most outpt poor but BCC China got some ideas of below normal temperatures
DATA available in October for 2018 February March April
UK Met got some idea of wetter in S for season and for lower pressure. BCC some idea of colder temperatures at least in S but mostly not good signals.
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