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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2016 December 2017 January and February - compiled 5th May 2017
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies
UKMO data agrees with CPC with regards temperatures being above average each month and for the season. Rainfall data suggests that parts of Argyll, S Scotland, NW Englnd and NW Wales had above average rain and most other parts had below normal rain especially the S and E of UK. For the season as a whole below normal rainfall largely due to very dry April.
Follow link to
original forecast summary for detail of forecast.
DATA available in January for 2017 February March April
Comment on the summary: Above normal temperature was correct but the idea that the N might see higher anoamlies was not correct. Rainfall forecast of above normal in NW was OK and suggestion of drier in S was good as was the idea the the W and S (less good) might be wetter in March. Overall the forecast for above normal rain was not correct. Poor forecast for the very dry April.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
1. Russia: Temp: fair. PPN: Fair
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp season good. Monthly a bit cool. PPN rainfall poor due to dry February.
3. UKMO Contingency: Good signal for above normal temps. PPn poor.
4. UKMO : Temp good. PPn good.
5. USA - IRI : Temp: fair PPN: no signal
6. KMA APCC : Temp good PPn fair (got wetter NW signal but not drier Feb)
7. JMA : Temp: fair PPN: fair but did not get dry April.
8. NMME : Temp: Good, got the trend in above normal well in that April less above PPN: Fair - good trend but over stated rain. Did have weak signal for drier April.
9. IMME : Temp: fair PPN: poor
10. BCC : Temp: good PPN: good got the drier April and some detial in earlier months good too
11. Brazil : Temp: poor PPN: poor
12. NASA : Temp: fair PPN: poor
13. CanSips : Temp: good PPN: fair
14. SAWS: Temp good PPN poor
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP N/a
NMME MAX and MIN n/a
NMME PPN rate:
NMME TEMP PROBS:
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
DATA available in December 2016 for 2017 February March April
UKMO and BCC China had quite good temp and precipitation
DATA available in November 2016 for 2017 February March April
No especially clear signal for PPN. Temps mostly fair, CFS good..
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