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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, January February and March 2016 - compiled 4 May 2016

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

CPC MONTH/UK and if available the THREE MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies

JMA PMSL three month mean and anomaly - below WNW mean. April was northly mean and slack flow.

UKMO Despite parts of the S being drier in April and the N in March, rainfall for the UK was above normal in April and for the 3 month season. April was cooler than the earlier months and was below normal for the season compared to the 1981 to 2010 averages but above normal compared to the 1961 to 1990 averages and also 1971 to 2000 except for Scotland. Anomaly was about minus 0.75C for England and Wales but minus 1.2 for Scotland and N Ireland. Pressure according to JMA was below normal except for March which was below in the South and above in the North.
Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in January for Feb March April 2016

IRI EL Nino statistical relationship suggested above normal rain which was correct.
IRI climate impacts.

IRI statistical probs indication for normal or above normal rain.

Main failings were in temperature being a litle to warm in all forecasts. Rainfall detail not good but climate plots show the spread of rain.
Original Summary - Unsettled period dominated by low pressure but with chance of some ridging mainly in or to the S/SW of UK early in the three month period but less likely later (based on 200hPa and PMSL anomalies). Pressure statement was good Fairly good agreement in the data so far for above normal temperatures, possibly well above normal for the three months. Hint that February might see the strongest positive anomalies and April the lowest. A risk that some northern or NW parts may be nearer normal.Temperature forecast was to warm the trend was correct with April cooler but not the detail although hint that the NW may be cooler was OK Precipitation above normal with a risk of well above normal. Less agreement about month to month detail and where wetter areas might be but April may be less likely to be above normal, some agreement for March above normal less clear for February. Snow risk lower than normal in the S but normal risk for northern hills.Fairly good with precipitation statement and for the idea of uncertainty in month to month detail
1. Russia: Temp not good ppn good
2. USA - CFS2 : Forecast a little warm but some good month to month detail especially PPN.
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp indication for cooler than normal was good. PPN fair/uncertain.
4. UKMO : Pressure fair. Temps a little warm. PPN OK.
5. USA - IRI : temp as usual too warm. PPn not a help.
6. KMA APCC : temp not so good ppn no signal
7. JMA : Pressure overly high. Temp warm. PPN ok.
8. NMME : to warm. rain fair, but not the area detail.
9. IMME - slightly better than NMME
10. BCC - Temp a little to warm. PPN fair.
11. NASA - A bit on the warm side. PPN and monthly detail not helpfull.
12. Brazil: slightly mild with temps and rainfall fair.
13: SAWS: Temps fair got the iddea of cooler in N. PPN not so good.

CFS2 mean TEMP

CFS2 mean PPN


NMME TEMP: mean data




Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly 080815 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server

Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS means Precip anomaly (ignore scale) data from NOAA NCEP CPC server

DATA available in Dec 2015 for Feb Mar Apr 2016

Comment: UKMO good with pressure, ppn and temp, otherwise little to choose between models though hints at colder in N and above normal PPN.

DATA available in Nov 2015 for Feb Mar Apr 2016

Comment: hint at nearer normal temps in CFS2 and below normal pressure in UKMO otherwise nothing much to choose from the available output with most too warm but OK with PPN..

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