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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, Feb Mar April 2015 - compiled 05 May 2015


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

UKMO
TEMP:
FEB UK slightly below normal - SW third of UK and SW of N Ireland below normal. Far N Scotland above
MAR UK slightly above normal - slightly above in N but mostly near normal (slightly stronger signal for above in Max temps in N and below in min temps N Ireland Wles and SW England
APR UK above normal - N Ireland and NW UK also E Anglia near normal elsewhere above. Max temps anoms above normal all areas. Min temps belopw for N Wales northwards
PPN:
FEB UK below normal - many areas normal wetter in SE England and drier in E Scotland NE England N Midlands and N Wales.
MAR UK normal normal - W Scotland and parts NW England wetter, S and E of England and NE Scotland drier.
APR UK below normal - mostly normal in N and NW of UK and Eire elsewhere below normal


CPC MONTH and THREE MONTH (Graphics added when available) TEMP and PPN anomalies



Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in December 2015 for Feb Mar Apr 2015


Comment on the summary: Was ok with normal or above temps suggested. PPN rain pattern of wetter in NW and drier in S was OK.
1. Russia: NO DATA
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good. PPN fair some of the earlier runs had a better distribution. Graphics were quite good for UK.
3. UKMO : temp good ppn not good but correct NW/SE distribution
4. UKMO Contingency - temps OK ppn not good
5. USA - IRI : temp OK PPn no indication
6. KMA APCC : Temp good ppn not good
7. JMA : Temp a bit cool. PPN signal not good
8. NMME : Temp OK a little warm perhaps. PPN graphics fairly good especially early in period.
9. IMME - INNM good indication but not of drier areas
12. BCC - Good temp and ppn signal
11. Brazil - RAS output better than JUO
12. NASA - Temps good with trend and fairly good month to month. PPN not good.

CFS2 mean TEMP (MAX MIN not shown)



CFS2 mean PPN


NMME MAX and MIN not shown
NMME TEMP probs


NMME PPN: Probs



DATA available in December 2014 for Feb Mar Apr 2015


Summary: UKMO pressure indication of less mbility later in period was good. Overall sigbnal from models of near normal temps OK. PPN details not so good overall.


DATA available in November 2014 for Feb Mar Apr 2015

Summary: Temps OK PPN typically to varied to be reliable.



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