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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2019 December 2020 January February- compiled 3 March 2020

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.





EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.

NASA JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly

UKMO summary

Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Well above average for the season and each month.

Rainfall. Above average all areas thanks to an exceptionally wet February. January was the relatively less wet month.

Pressure. Below average but near or slightly above in far South.

Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in November for 2019 December 2020 January February

Original Summary - 161119 - Strongest indication for above normal or at worst normal for one month during season, only two models have below normal temperatures for season (BoM and Moscow which tend to be colder) and JMA suggests colder February but milder for season. Precipitation more mixed signal but overall wetter than average although hints at February being the less wet month except in the NW. The colder models have less wet solutions in the main but there is a hint that parts of the south could become drier than average later in the winter. Milder temperatures imply reduced snowfall (except perhaps mountains). Enhanced jet and PMSL patterns suggest a changeable and at times windier than normal winter.

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
Comment: on summary - good signal for milder and wetter but not for the less wet end of winter.
1. Russia: Temp poor . PPN poor .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good. PPN good but monthly detail lacking .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good. PPN good.
4. UKMO : Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL poor (to high)
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal. PPN good .
6. KMA APCC : Temp good. PPN no signal .
7. JMA : Temp Good season but Feb poor. PPN season but Feb poor . PMSL good
8. NMME : Temp Good . PPN Good .
9. WMO Temp good. PPN Good season but Feb fair.
10. BCC - Temp good. PPN fair .
11. NASA - Temp good. PPN good .
12. Brazil: Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL good
13. CanSips : Temp good . PPN fair .
14. SAWS: :
15. Copernicus Temp good . PPN good (bit low in rain rates) . PMSL good
16. EC Temp good . PPN good . PMSL good
17. MF Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL fair
18. JAMSTEC: Temp poor . PPN good .
19: KMA: Temp good . PPN fair .
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: good . PPN good but not February
21: CMCC Temp no signal. PPN no signal.
22: DWD Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL good

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