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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2018 December 2019 January Febuary - compiled 3 February 2019


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP


UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN2 TN3 TN7

ECMWF (note ppn reversed colour scheme)
EC

CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies


UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN5 TN6 TN8

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Overall above average for the season and any indication of a lesss mild January followed by milder February (record warm February).

Rainfall. Below normal for season, and look for indication for wetter December and drier January.

Pressure. Above normal for season



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in October for 2018 December 2019 January February


Original Summary - 171119 - The main indication is for the temperature to be near normal for the season with a hint of the far S being above normal. The start of winter could be milder than the end compared to monthly average. Monthly data suggests increased uncertainty for February with some models showing above and some below average. Many models suggests similar probabilities for the three categories of above/normal/below. (It should be noted that near normal would be above normal if referenced to the 1961 to 1990 period due the rise in average temperatures since that time). Precipitation: Main indication near normal but above normal in parts of the S and perhaps E of UK. Large variation in models but some agreement that December may be the wettest compared to normal and that the north could be be drier in places in January and February. Sea Level Pressure: Chance of below normal pressure in south and above average pressure in north.

Result: Temperature mostly fair but signal for the milder Febriary was confused by the colder indication due to a sudden stratospheric warming which although blocked patterns developed the flow remained mild rather than colder easterly. Rainfall good indication for December but poor overall for the season being wetter than average. Pressure was above average so at best only a partial signal.

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
Models with monthly output:
NMME: Temp fair PPN Good overall but less so for Scotland
CFS2 E3: Temp fair (best for February), some earlier runs gor the idea of Feb being warmest. PPN poor overly wet
ECMWF: Temp Poor went for colder Feb. Good signal for dier January, overly wet in N for December and in Feb across SE and SW England overall good signal
CANSIPS: Temp poor due cold signal for Feb PPN good overall
KMA: Temp poor PPN poor
JMA: Temp fair PPN fair to good
BCC: Temp fair PPN fair to good
NASA: Temp fair PPN fair


Season as a whole:
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
Comment:
1. Russia: Temp poor. PPN poor.
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair. PPN poor. .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp poor. PPN poor.
4. UKMO : Temp No signal PPN poor. PMSL poor
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal PPN no signal
6. KMA APCC : Temp good . PPN no signal .
7. JMA : Temp good. PPN good . PMSL good
8. NMME : Temp good . PPN good .
9. IMME - Temp fair. PPN poor..
10. BCC - Temp fair. PPN poor .
11. NASA - Temp fair. PPN fair..
12. Brazil: Temp poor. PPN poor.
13. CanSips : Temp poor PPN poor
14. SAWS: : Temp good . PPN no signal .
15. Copernicus Temp poor. PPN poor. PMSL poor
16. EC Temp no signal. PPN no signal . PMSL good
17. MF Temp no signal. PPN no signal. PMSL poor
18. JAMSTEC: Temp poor. PPN poor.
19: KMA: Temp poor. PPN poor. PMSL poor
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: poor. PPN good . PMSL
21: CMCC Temp no signa. PPN poor. PMSL fair
22: DWD Temp poor. PPN poor. PMSL poor


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