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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, December 2017 January and February 2018 - compiled 9 March 2018
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies
Follow link to
original forecast summary for detail of forecast.
DATA available in November for 2017 December 2018 January February
Original summary "Summary - 181117 -
Temperature: Strong indication for above normal temperatures or at worst normal, (does not rule out some colder snaps see temperature graphs above for examples). Perhaps slightly less indiaction for above normal in the N than in the S where well above normal is possible. Only BCC China suggests below normal temepratures, CMC2 has near normal as does MeteoFr and in places EC. Hints that January could see the highest positive anomalies. (Some climate indications for a colder winter eg: QBO Easterly and La Nina but not reflected in seasonal model output despite some models being coupled and stratospheric.)
Precipitation: Main indications is for above normal precipitation especially in the N and W and possible near or below normal in some eastern and possible southern areas. Impact from La Nina event (see ENSO tracking above) suggests that the N of UK may be above normal, elsewhere normal or below. Note for some western exposures the probs are similar for above/normal/below.
Pressure most likely below normal in the N, typical of more frequent W or SW types."
Temperature; fairly good summary N was a little colder as suggested but did not specifically suggest the colder February.
Rainfall; the above normal signal was good for Eire and N Ireland and some other western areas for Dec and Jan but the drier Febuary was not allowed for. Also the overall season being wetter in the east of England and the NE of England and Scotland being drier was also not signalled.
Pressure; was below normal for the season with a mean W flow largely due to below normal pressure in January with December below in N but above in S and February above average.
La Nina statistical relationship was misleading.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
No signal from month to month data for drier and colder Febrary.
1. Russia: Temp poor . PPN poor .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair . PPN poor .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp fair . PPN poor.
4. UKMO : Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL good .
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN poor/no signal .
6. KMA APCC : Temp poor . PPN poor .
7. JMA : Temp poor . PPN fair . PMSL fair
8. NMME : Temp poor. PPN poor .
9. IMME - Temp poor. PPN poor.
10. BCC - Temp poor . PPN poor .
11. NASA - Temp poor . PPN fair .
12. Brazil: Temp fair . PPN fair .
13. CanSips : Temp poor . PPN fair/good .
14. SAWS: : Temp n/a . PPN n/a .
15. Copernicus Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL fair
16. EC Temp good Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
17. MF Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL fair
18. JAMTEC: Temp poor . PPN poor.
19: KMA: Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL fair
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP
NMME MAX and MIN not available
NMME PPN rate:
NMME TEMP PROBS:
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
DATA available in October for 2017 December 2018 January February
Only BCC China got the idea of a drier and colder February after a milder and wetter earlier months but did not get the drier season for NE Scotland.
DATA available in September for 2017 for 2017 December 2018 January February
Mostly models went for the wetter milder signal no suggestion of drier NE Scotland and drier/colder February.
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