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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2016 December 2017 January and February - compiled 4th Feb 2017


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

UKMO


CPC MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies







UKMO data suggests February was closer to normal rainfall acros the UK but did not compensate for earlier drier months. A return to generally milder weather ensured winter average waas above normal for most area apart from far SE which was near normal. Pressure according to JMA was below average in February compared to the above average earlier months, leaving winter average above normal.

IRI statistical prediction with La Nina hinted at below normal rainfall exxcept in the N of Scotland which was more or less correct.

Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in November 2016 for 2016 December 2017 January February


Comment on the summary: Temperature summary was correct with the above normal indication. Rainfall less clear as stated but the ideas of a wetter latter part of winter was correct although overall rainfall being below normal with the forecast of normal or above normal rain was not correct.

1. Russia: Temp good. PPN not good.
2. USA - CFS2 : Good temp signal for season, some hints that Jan would be normal rather than above. Rainfall not so good but did hint at Feb being wetter than other months overall though an overforecast of precip?
3. UKMO Contingency: Poor signal for December temperature but milder winter was OK. Rain some indication of drier start then wetter but over stated winter rain.
4. UKMO : Good idea of temperature less mild in SE strong signal in NW. PPN not a help despite enhanced probs for well below there were also probs for well above normal so masking any usuable signal.
5. USA - IRI : Temp OK PPN no signal
6. KMA APCC : good temp signal with indication of N/S variation. PPN not good, did not suggest below normal - although hinted at Feb wetter than other months.
7. JMA : temp fair but precip poor . PMSL not good
8. NMME : Temps OK got the less mild Jaunary. Over forecast of rain but monthly map did have areas of below normal.
9. IMME : TEmps fair. Rain over forecast but some idea of Feb wetter than other months
10. BCC : Temp fair, goot idea of cooler Jan but overall was a little on cool side. Rainfall some indication of below normal and for variation but as with other models over forecast. More signals for below normal than other models.
11. Brazil : Temp good. PPN not good
12. NASA : Temp good. PPN not correct but had idea of Feb wetter than earlier months.
13. CanSips : Temps OK some indication of Jan less mild. PPN less good but gave indication of drier December despite overall above normal
14. SAWS: Temps OK rain not good.


CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP N/a





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN n/a






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly





DATA available in October 2016 for 2016 December 2017 January February

Similar to November, temperature forecast for above normal OK rainfall overforecast. NMME had areas of below normal but over forecast the wetter areas.


DATA available in September 2016 for 2016 for 2016 December 2017 January February
BCC China - forecast good with drier and milder for season but monthly detail not correct. Most models not so good as later forecasts, even more over forecast of rain and less mild signal.



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