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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, Dec 2014 Jan Feb 2015 - compiled 3 March 2015


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
Met Office regional winter values

WINTER TEMP and PPN



CPC MONTH and THREE MONTH TEMP and PPN



UK data shows overall winter temperatures near normal or slightly above normal except parts of N Ireland. After a mild Dec N Ireland had cold anomalies in Jan and Feb compared to just Feb for SW areas of UK.
UK data shows overall winter PPN to be drier than normal across the E and S but wetter in NW. The NW being wetter than normal early in the winter and the SE wetter late in the winter.
Follow links above to orignal forecast summary for more detail of forecast.

DATA available in Novemer 2014 for Dec 2014 Jan Feb 2015


Comment on the summary: Winter was mild compared to 1961-90 period but near normal or slightly above comparted to 1981-2010 period so the summry for milder than normal was OK and the idea of being colder later in winter was good. The wetter signal was only true for the N and NW rather than the whole of UK although overall above average UK rain occured.
1. Russia: Temp OK PPN not good.
2. USA - CFS2 : near normal temp was OK but PPN signal not good.Month by month graphics hinted at cooler Feb MAX temps.
3. UKMO : temp good although well above normal signal no good. PPN OK but well above normal locations not helpfull
4. UKMO Contingency - good temp indication including hint at colder later in winter. PPn Fair but not good.
5. USA - IRI : not especially helpfull but above normal temp OK. PPN no indication.
6. KMA APCC : temp OK but did not get colder later. PPN useful indication of wetter in NW early in winter.
7. **JMA Good month to month signal good overall Temp and PPN.
8. NMME no added value although month by month temps showed cooling trend later in winter and some PPN probs were OK.
9. IMME - no added value
10. BCC - temp and ppn not so good.
11. Brazil - Temp OK ppn not good.
12. NASA - seasonal signal OK but month to month not good temp and ppn.


Correct graphics now included from CFS and NMME sorry. 030415
CFS2 MAX MIN




NMME TEMP probs


NMME PPN:


Original graphics shown were for 2 month lead time not one - these left in for comparison. CFS2 MAX MIN




NMME MAX (MIN not available)


NMME TEMP probs


NMME PPN:



DATA available in Oct 2014 for Dec 2014 Jan Feb 2015


Summary: Similar trend with colder end to winter OK and above normal ppn OK. Models overall consistent signal but detail not correct month to month.


DATA available in Sep 2014 for Dec 2014 Jan Feb 2015

Summary: good overall signal in the summary of trend to colder later.



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