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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, WINTER 2013/14 December 2013 Jan Feb 2014 - compiled 05 March 2014

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

Still some problems with CPC rain anomalies - have E mail CPC for comment.

Overall well above normal temperatures and rainfall - see UKMO winter summary for record rainfall detail - UKMO Winter 2013/14
See also Met IE Monthly Data

Follow links above to orignal forecast summary for more detail of forecast.

DATA available in November 2013 for December 2013 January and February 2014

The summary not helpfull except indicated uncertainty and risk of above normal rain in SW.

1. Russia: good temp signal for above normal less good with PPN but hinted at N/S ditribution.
2. USA - FSU :
3. USA - CFS2 : fairly poor poor with temperature forcast (above normal could be masked by warm period used for hindcasts)
but picked out risks of above normal rain fairly well with some indication that the N less affected. Strong signal for zonal type and good with enhanced jet pointing towards S of UK.
4. UKMO : complex signal with some indication of well above normal temps (but not in S or SE) and well above normnal rain in S of UK but this masked by other signals. Hence poor forecast.
4a. Contingency poor forecast main theme as colder and drier however hinted at increase in temps and rain after Dec.
5. USA - NASA : Temp fairly poor (above normal could be masked by warm period used for hindcasts). Some indication of above normal rain in S.
6. USA - IRI : above normal temps correct (mostly goes mild) PPN poor
7. KMA : Temp OK PPN poor
8. JMA - not good.
9. NMME - no help with PPN but consensus for mild was correct.
9a. IMME no help with PPN no extra help.
10. BCC - fairly good with temp and rain but not exceptional rain.

DATA available in October 2013 for DEC 2013 JAN FEB 2014

The summary was fairly good with above normal temps and rain

CFS2 not so good with temps (normal) but hinted at wetter types.
UKMO good temp forecast but PPN forecast not so good though above normal was indicated
NASA fairly poor detail hinted at wetter in W.
FSU PPn poor Temp fair
BCC - good with temps less so with PPN.

DATA available in September 2013 for DEC 2013 JAN FEB 2014

Summary was very good - there was increased snow over Scotland. BCC not so good but CFS2 and UKMO gave good guide to the milder wetter winter to come.

Mail Mike here

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