Verification index
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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2021 Aug Sept Oct compiled 4 Nov 2021
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP
EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
ECMWF
WMO data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.
Probability combined.
BOM monthly
Canada monthly
DWD monthly
CPTEC Brazil monthly
UKMO monthly
Moscow monthly
SEOUL monthly
Tokyo monthly
Toulouse monthly
Washington monthly
ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies
EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly - note 1991 to 2020 new thirty year period
UKMO summary
Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature.
Rainfall. .
Sunshine.
Pressure.
Follow link to
original forecast summary for detail of forecast.
DATA available in July for 2021 August September October
Original Summary - .
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal for three month period.
Comment:
1. Russia (WMO): Temp . PPN .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp . PPN .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp . PPN .
4. UKMO : Temp . PPN . PMSL
5. USA - IRI : Temp . PPN .
6. KMA APCC : Temp . PPN .
7. JMA : Temp . PPN . PMSL
8. NMME : Temp . PPN .
9. WMO multi : Temp . PPN .
10. BCC : Temp . PPN .
11. NASA : Temp . PPN .
12. Brazil: Temp . PPN .
13. CanSips : Temp . PPN .
14. IMME : Temp . PPN .
15. Copernicus Temp . PPN . PMSL
16. CMCC Temp . PPN . PMSL
17: DWD Temp . PPN . PMSL
18. EC Temp . PPN . PMSL
19 JMA Temp . PPN . PMSL
20 UKMO Temp . PPN . PMSL
21. MF Temp . PPN . PMSL
22 NCEP Temp . PPN . PMSL
23 ECCC Temp: . PPN . PMSL
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