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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2021 Aug Sept Oct compiled 4 Nov 2021


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN7 TN2 TN3
ECMWF
EC


WMO data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.

Probability combined.
200


BOM monthly
200

Canada monthly
200

DWD monthly
200
CPTEC Brazil monthly
200

UKMO monthly
200


Moscow monthly
200

SEOUL monthly
200

Tokyo monthly
200

Toulouse monthly
200

Washington monthly
200

ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
200



CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN8 TN5 TN6
NASA

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly - note 1991 to 2020 new thirty year period


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.

Temperature.

Rainfall. .

Sunshine.

Pressure.



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in July for 2021 August September October


Original Summary - .

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal for three month period.
Comment:
1. Russia (WMO): Temp . PPN .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp . PPN .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp . PPN .
4. UKMO : Temp . PPN . PMSL
5. USA - IRI : Temp . PPN .
6. KMA APCC : Temp . PPN .
7. JMA : Temp . PPN . PMSL
8. NMME : Temp . PPN .
9. WMO multi : Temp . PPN .
10. BCC : Temp . PPN .
11. NASA : Temp . PPN .
12. Brazil: Temp . PPN .
13. CanSips : Temp . PPN .
14. IMME : Temp . PPN .
15. Copernicus Temp . PPN . PMSL
16. CMCC Temp . PPN . PMSL
17: DWD Temp . PPN . PMSL
18. EC Temp . PPN . PMSL
19 JMA Temp . PPN . PMSL
20 UKMO Temp . PPN . PMSL
21. MF Temp . PPN . PMSL
22 NCEP Temp . PPN . PMSL
23 ECCC Temp: . PPN . PMSL

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