Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area

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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2019 August September October- compiled 4th October

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP

UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN2

ECMWF

WMO

UKMO

CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies

UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN5

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly

UKMO summary

Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Near or slightly above normal overall but very slightly cooler than average in October

Rainfall. Above normal. Scotland well above in Aug then below for Sep and Oct. England and Wales mostly above but parts of the SE near normal

Pressure near or slightly below normal (A below S above O below).

Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in July for August September October2019

Original Summary - 160719 - A few models suggest near normal temperatures, typically early in the three month season and above normal later but the overwhelming majority suggest a continuation of near and for periods above normal temperatures across the UK and Eire. Forecast rain patterns do not form any agreement but there are some hints at longer dry spells early in the season and overall hints at wetter in the north and less so in the south for the season as a whole. Pressure may also be above average, chiefly in the south of the UK.
Comment - 041119 - Temp forecast was mostly OK but the cooler September was not indicated. Rainfall forecast was not especially good but perhaps had some sense of uncertainty and above normal rain. Pressure was above averag close to the south of UK overall though below average except in September.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
Models did not get the cooler October.
1. Russia: Temp good. PPN poor .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good. PPN fair.
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good. PPN no signal.
4. UKMO : Temp good. PPN fair . PMSL poor
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal. PPN poor.
6. KMA APCC : Temp good. PPN poor/no signal.
7. JMA : Temp good. PPN poor. PMSL Very good season and sequence
8. NMME : Temp good. PPN poor.
9. IMME - Temp good. PPN poor.
10. BCC - Temp good. PPN poor.
11. NASA - Temp good. PPN fair.
12. Brazil: Temp good. PPN poor. PMSL fair - a bit high.
13. CanSips : Temp good. PPN poor.
14. SAWS: : Temp poor. PPN poor.
15. Copernicus Temp good. PPN poor/no signal . PMSL poor
16. EC Temp good. PPN no signal. PMSL poor
17. MF Temp good. PPN fair/no signal. PMSL poor
18. JAMSTEC:
19: KMA: Temp good. PPN poor. PMSL poor
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: fair. PPN poor.
21: CMCC Temp good. PPN poor. PMSL poor
22: DWD Temp good. PPN poor/no signal. PMSL poor

WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability of anomaly - 160719 CPTEC missing
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