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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, August September October 2018 - compiled 3 November 2018


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN7 TN2 TN3

ECMWF (note ppn reversed colour scheme)
EC

CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN8 TN5 TN6

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Close to average generally although Scotland was a little cooler than average and Easetrn England a little warmer.

Rainfall. Mostly below average although parts of Wales and Scotland (mainly N and W) were wetter.
Pressure. Generally above average



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in July for 2018 August September October


Original Summary - Good - Slightly optimistic temperature but idea of the west trending to normal was good as was the idea of higher than average pressure. Rainfall trend towards normal was fair and the idea of the of the north becoming above normal was good.
1. Russia: Temp fair . PPN poor .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good . PPN fair .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp fair . PPN good .
4. UKMO : Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor .
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN good .
6. KMA APCC : Temp fair . PPN fair .
7. JMA : Temp fair . PPN good . PMSL fair
8. NMME : Temp fair . PPN good .
9. IMME - Temp fair . PPN fair .
10. BCC - Temp fair . PPN fair .
11. NASA - Temp poor . PPN fair .
12. Brazil: Temp fair . PPN good PMSL fair .
13. CanSips : Temp fair . PPN poor .
14. SAWS:
15. Copernicus Temp good . PPN no signal . PMSL good
16. EC Temp good Temp fair . PPN no signal . PMSL poor
17. MF Temp fair. PPN fair . PMSL fair
18. JAMSTEC:
19: KMA: Temp fair . PPN fair. PMSL poor
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: fair PPN: fair


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