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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, August September October 2017 - compiled 7 November 2017
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies
Summary - Temperature was above average in October and despite cooler Ausgust and September the overall three month average was above normal for all of the UK. Rainfall was above average across the north but near or below average in the SE and the SE in prticular was drier due to the low rainfall in October and near or slightly below average in September. Pressure slightly above normal in S and below in N see image for monthly variations.
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original forecast summary for detail of forecast.
DATA available in July for 2017 August September October 2017
Original Summary - was fair, perhaps good for temperature with the warmer October stated. Rainfall too was fair but good suggesting SE drier in October.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
1. Russia: Temp fair PPN poor
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp Good ut a little cool in early months . PPN fair in the NW Scotland was a good signal did not get the drier SE in October .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good PPN fair with split solutions
4. UKMO : Temp good PPN good PMSL fair
5. USA - IRI : Temp poor PPN poor
6. KMA APCC : Temp PPN
7. JMA : Temp fair PPN fair PMS fairL
8. NMME : Temp Fair - got the trend to warmer but was to warm in Aug and Sep PPN fair - got the idea of drier in S correct but not the drier October
9. IMME - Temp good PPN poor
10. BCC - Temp good PPN poor
11. NASA - Temp fair PPN fair
12. Brazil: (KUO) Temp poor PPN poor PMSL
13. CanSips : Temp fair PPN fair
14. SAWS: no data
15. Copernicus Temp Fair PPN Good in NW elsewhere no signal PMSLfair
16. EC Temp fair PPN fair did not get drier SE PMSL
17. MF Temp fair PPN fair drier types a little far north and not in SE. PMS poorL
18. JAMTEC: no data
19: KMA: Temp fair PPN fair PMSL poor
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP
NMME MAX and MIN n/a
NMME PPN rate:
NMME TEMP PROBS:
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
DATA available in June for 2017 August September October 2017
CFS2 gave some indication of drier S and near normal temps but not the much milder October
DATA available in May for 2017 August September October 2017
UKMO had fair stab at below normal rain in S. Otherwise no consistently good signals.
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