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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, August September October 2016 - compiled 9th November 2016


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

UKMO


CPC MONTH and THREE MONTH (Graphics added if available) TEMP and PPN anomalies




UKMO data agrees with above normal temperatures for the 3 month season with September seeing the strongest anomaly. Below normal rain over England each month but only just below but with well belopw normal rain in all regions in October off setting slightly above normal rain in Wales, Scotland and fr September also in N Ireland.

October was markely drier except in the E of UK and September markedly warmer - did this get picked pp in the monthly detail? Answer no!


Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in July 2016 for August September October 2016


Comment on the summary: Not very helpfull, got the above normal temperatures but not the monthly variation. Rainfall mixed signal was correct but above normal was upset by the much drier than normal October.
Overall a poor effort from models with regards pressure and rain temps a little better, 1. Russia: temps fair precip no signal
2. USA - CFS2 : (near normal temps OK within range) Did not get monthly variation in temperature anomaly nor the much drier October
3. UKMO Contingency: Above avergae temps correct. August rain OK seasonal suggested equaly chance of above/below normal.
4. UKMO : Pressure signal underplayed the higher pressure. Temos fair. Rain poor.
5. USA - IRI : Tempss above normal correct. No help with rain.
6. KMA APCC : temps OK but rain poor
7. JMA : Pressure did not make enough of high pressure. Temps fair but no month to month variaion. Rain poor
8. NMME : Temp fair but did not get the much milder September. Rain poor.
9. IMME : Temp fair PPN poor.
12. BCC : TEmp OK made a stable at September being warmer. Rain not good.
11. Brazil : not good.
12. NASA : Temp OK rain poor - did not get drier October
13. CanSips : Temos fair did not get the much milder Sept. Gave some hints at below normal rain in Oct but not in the right areas



CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly





DATA available in June 2016 for August September October 2016

Summary No models got the variation nor the drier signal especially later. Temps normal or above were fair.


DATA available in May 2016 for August September October 2016

Summary No models got the variation nor the drier signal especially later. Temps normal or above were fair.


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