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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, August September October 2015 - compiled 8 November2015

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

CPC MONTH and if available the THREE MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies

CPC broadly simiar to UK data with Scotland near normal or a little above normal temperatures for the season. Note the drier area in August in Central Scotland which is backed up by Met Office prelim data as is the wetter NE England in October.

UKMO data suggests:
TEMP Compared to 1961-1990 temperatures were above normal BUT compared to the 1981 to 2010 the period was slightly cooler than average (-0.2C) although Scotland was slightly above (0.2) hence not far from average. Sept was the coolest month then August but with October miklder.
PPN: Rainfall compared to 81-10 averages for the three months was below normal although England was near normal with 95% over normal. Overall August was wet and Sept and Oct drier although NE England was wetter than normal in October.

Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in July 2015 for Aug Sep Oct 2015

IRI EL Nino statistical relationship suggested normal or below normal PPN perhaps above in NE England

Original Summary - 170715 - was not good. Although temps where overall near normal which was OK and the below normal rainfall was indicated the month to month detail however was misleading.
1. Russia: Temps near normal OK for S but below normal in N not correct. Rainfall OK hinted below normal
2. USA - CFS2 : near normal for season OK gave some hints at cooler August. Rainfall not good/inconsistent monthly detail.
3. UKMO Contingency: Got colder August but rain forecast was poor. Season temperature uncertainty stated got the drier than normal OK
4. UKMO : ABove normal pressure was good bt overstated the above normal temps. Gome some rain detail ok but not for the N.
5. USA - IRI : got the idea that the N would have slightly above normal temps and probs elsewhere for above were quite low for IRI. PPN no signal
7. JMA : Temps reasonable but precip not good.
8. NMME : season temps fair other detail poor and monthly detail misleading
9. IMME - not a help
10. BCC - Fair for S of UK less so elsewhere
11. NASA - Temps reasonable but ppn not a help.
12. Brazil: not a help

CFS2 mean TEMP (MAX MIN not shown)

CFS2 mean PPN

NMME MAX and MIN not available
NMME TEMP: mean data




DATA available in June 2015 for August Sep Oct 2015

Summary: Fairly poor overall some hints for trend to drier and near normal temps but the sharp difference from wet August to drier Sep/Oct not really indicated.

DATA available in May 2015 for August Sep Oct2015

Summary: Some CFS2 output suggested wetter August for S of UK but not the drier spell later. Overall average temps shown but detail poor.

Any questions E Mail Mike

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