Verification index
Back to current Forecast issue



UKMO


Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, August September October 2014 - compiled 041114


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

UKMO data suggests the 3 month season period all areas above normal despite colder August.
PPN Wales and N Ireland below normal, W England normal or slightly below but elsewhere above normal.








See orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in July for August September October 2014

Summaries - was good with overall temp and ppn though areas for above normal PPn were incorrect.

1. Russia: temps and ppn fair
2. USA - FSU : NOT AVAILABLE
3. USA - CFS2 : seasons OK but month to month detail not good
4. UK : temps OK PPn OK but wrong areas for wetter
5. UK contingency: (corrected 051214) poor temp for august. Rain good for August. Overall signal temp and rain OK. Hint of drier month later was OK
6. USA - NASA : overall OK
7. USA - IRI : overall OK
8. APCC - no better than most with temps month to month data poor.
9. JMA - no indication of month by month variation.
10. NMME did not add much and month to month data poor for August and also drier months
11. IMME did not add much and month to month data poor for August and also drier months
12. Brazil fair trend
13. BCC fair trend
14. GFDL-FLORb01 - see graphic output no better than other forecasts
CFS2 MAX MIN 130614 graphics no longer online but can be made available
DATA available in June 2014 for August September October 2014

TEMP and PPN 3 month trend OK but lacked month to month variation but UKMO probs suggesting extremes may have suggested a large spread in outcomes.
DATA available in May 2014 for August September October 2014

TEMP and PPN 3 month trend OK but lacked month to month variation but UKMO probs suggesting extremes may have suggested a large spread in outcomes.


Mail me here

Return to:

Go to Obs and Sat pics Go to Forecast links Go to Mobile phone links Go to Natural Hazards links Go to climate links Go to UK Ozone data