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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, August September October 2013 - compiled 24 Nov 2013
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
UK and Eire temps above normal mostly plus 1 to 3 C anomaly range. UKMO data shows anomalies lower in Sept then Aug or Oct but still positive.
Rainfall in Scotland nearer normal but England and Wales mostly above normal. The anomalies shown for Eire look bit low - below normal was correct but perhaps not
quite as low as implied by the map. See Met IE Monthly Data Main wet month was OCTOBER.
Follow links above to orignal forecast summary for more detail of forecast.
DATA available in July 2013 for August September October 2013
1. Russia: underplayed temps and rain.
2. USA - FSU : temp above normal was OK except S of UK where forecast was for below. Some idea about above normal PPN.
3. USA - CFS2 : seems to underforecast temps but going for normal when result was above. Gave some ideas about above normal rain in S but was not so good for Eire.
4. UK : Good with above normal temperature. Good with above normal rain less good for Scotland and W of Eire where PPn was normal or below
5. USA - NASA : ABove normal temps OK but PPN not good.
6. USA - IRI : OK with above normal temps but no ppn signal
7. KMA / APCC - not helpfull
8. JMA - Underplayed the above normal in north but good elsewhere. PPN detail poor.
9. NMME - to bland
DATA available in June 2013 for August September October2013
Poor forecasts several went for colder than normal including UK and NASA. PPN poor.
DATA available in May 2013 for August September October 2013
Generally poor forercasts
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