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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2020 April May June - compiled 3 July 2020
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP
EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
ECMWF
WMO March 2020 data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.
Probability combined. 230320
120320
BOM monthly
Canada monthly
DWD monthly
CPTEC Brazil monthly
UKMO monthly
230320
Moscow monthly
SEOUL monthly
Tokyo monthly
Toulouse monthly
Washington monthly
ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies
EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly
UKMO summary
Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Each month say above average temperatures with the strongest anomaly in April.
Rainfall. Overall the three months rainfall was below average. Parts of SE England clealy had three months drier than average, elsewhere April and May were drier except in NW Scotland Main signal for month data is the change to wetter June.
Pressure. Above average April and May
Follow link to
original forecast summary for detail of forecast.
DATA available in March for 2020 April May June
Original Summary - Summary - 190320 -
Temperture: For the three months in central and eastern areas there is a consistant indication for above average temperatures. Elsewhere near normal seems more likely with some months possibly below average, most likely April and possibly early May largely due to colder than normal Atlantic sea temperatures. Models are typically poor at picking out colder months.
Rainfall: Many models indicate below average rainfall for the season, most likely in the south with the NW of UK at possible normal or above normal rainfall. Little agreement between models as to which month could be drier or wetter - mixed signal.
Comment: 020720 Temperature: the main thrust for above normal temperatures was correct though if anything understated. Area of normal or below normal were limited.
Rainfall: Below average rainfall was correct for the season. Monthly variation hard to find bu NMME and ECMWF did quite well/
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
1. Russia: Temp poor . PPN poor .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good . PPN poor .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good . PPN good .
4. UKMO : Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL fair
UKMO Monthly data Temperture goor rain poor
5. USA - IRI : Temp poor . PPN poor .
6. KMA APCC : Temp good. PPN poor/no signal .
7. JMA : Temp good. PPN poor . PMSL good
8. NMME : Temp good. PPN good .
9. WMO : Temp fair. PPN poor .
10. BCC : Temp poor. PPN fair .
11. NASA - Temp fair. PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp good. PPN poor .
13. CanSips : Temp good . PPN fair .
14. SAWS: :
15. Copernicus Temp fair . PPN no signal . PMSL good
16. EC Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL fair
EC Monthly Temps a little cool, Did not get drier April but got the dry May and tried to get wetter June
17. MF Temp poor . PPN poor / no signal . PMSL good
MF got the driern May
18. JAMSTEC:
19:
20: CMCC Temp good . PPN poor / no signal . PMSL fair
21: DWD Temp good . PPN poor / no signal . PMSL good
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