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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2019 April May June - compiled 11 July 2019

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.





UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly

UKMO summary

Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Season ended up above normal due to milder April but did models suggest May and June would be neaer normal or even a colder spell?.

Rainfall. Messy pattern but wet June for England and May in NE Scotland, season ended up above average despite some drier months.

Pressure. North above average for season. South below

Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in February for April May June 2019

Original Summary - 15 March 2019 - Above normal temperatures and wetter start then drier than average end to season. Temperature - Moscow below normal with Melborne and Pretoria models showing normal with a hint of below normal temperatures but the vast majority of solutions show above normal temperatures monthly and for the season. There is a hint that the north may be nearer normal and that May might have slightly lower anomalies than other months. Precipitation - Not a consistent indication from the models but majority support for wetter start and drier end to the season, possibly with the wetter weather in the W in April, N in May and then generally drier than average for June. Moscow and Melborne are wetter, especially in the S of UK throught, and UKMO Exeter suggests wetter June in S half of UK but normal to drier overall for the season.

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
Comment: Some good pointers to temperature anomaly and cooler signal in some models but the overall above average for season waas correct. Some good indications from some models for wetter Jund in England and in Scotland for May but idea of drier end to season was not correct although the end of June was dry and warm.

1. Russia: Temp poor . PPN good .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair . PPN poor .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good . PPN poor .
4. UKMO : Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL fair
5. USA - IRI : Temp fair. PPN fair .
6. KMA APCC : Temp good . PPN no signal .
7. JMA :
8. NMME : Temp good . PPN poor.
9. IMME - Temp good . PPN poor.
10. BCC - Temp good. PPN poor .
11. NASA - Temp good . PPN poor .
12. Brazil:
13. CanSips : Temp good. PPN fair .
14. SAWS: : .
15. Copernicus Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL
16. EC Temp good. PPN poor. PMSL
17. MF Temp good. PPN poor. PMSL
18. JAMSTEC: .
19: KMA:
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: fair . PPN poor. PMSL
21: CMCC Temp good . PPN poor. PMSL
22: DWD Temp good . PPN poor. PMSL

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