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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, April May June 2018 - compiled 4 July 2018

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature above normal with increasingly positive anomalies reaching around 2 C by June.
Season above average.
Rainfall. Mostly wetter than average April but then below average. Note Scotland below normal since January 2018. June exceptionally dry for S England and S Wales.
Season below normal.
Pressure. Below average in April then above average.
Season above average.

Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in March for 2018 April May June

Original Summary - "Summary - 170318 - Temperature for the season starting normal or below normal ending above normal hence overall could be close to normal for the season. Sea temperature near N Sea may stay below normal helping hold back temperatures for parts of NE or E of England. Rainfall likely to be below average in the S and SW of UK and Eire but above in the north. Some indication that May could be the wetter month for the south and April the drier month for some western areas but in generaly not much agreement between models for month to month detail."
Verdict on summary: Temperature Fair did get warmer. Rainfall below average sigbak for S good but below average more widespread April deatil not good though some hints at locally wetter in S England in May.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
No signal for any centre for less above normnal/near normal in July after warmer May/June.

None of the models got the very dry June or the record warm. One of the problem with ensembles.

1. Russia: Temp Fair. PPN good .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair (too cold at first but got some idea of warmer) . PPN good E3 but earlier data fair .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp Fair got the trend but not warm enough . PPN poor .
4. UKMO : Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL good .
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN poor .
6. KMA APCC : Temp fair . PPN poor .
7. JMA : Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL monthly good seasonal fair
8. NMME : Temp fair )monthly trend good) . PPN fair but April poor. .
9. IMME - Temp poor . PPN poor .
10. BCC - Temp good. PPN good .
11. NASA - Temp poor . PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp poor. PPN poor PMSL poor .
13. CanSips : Temp poor . PPN fair .
14. SAWS: no data.
15. Copernicus Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
16. EC Temp poor . PPN fair . PMSL poor
17. MF Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
19: KMA: Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL fair
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: poor but trend OK (too cool) PPN: Fair

UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.



DATA available in February 2018 for April May June

Poor effort from all the models.

DATA available in January 2018 for April May June

BCC and CANSips got the idea of warmer and drier but not the wtter April.

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