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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, April May June 2017 - compiled 6July 2017


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies








UKMO Temperature fairly straight forward above normal all areas. Rainfall less clear cut UK as whole comes out below normal for the season (Scotland slightly above). June was wet except in central England so looking for any indication that this was indicated. In addition some rainfall sites measure 09 to 09 period in UK and included some end of March start of April rain in April but CPC uses 00-24 period. April was dry so this also is a point to check in verifiation for models that give monthly data.
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Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in March for 2017 April May June 2017


Comment on the summary: The summary dated 28th was good for temperature and rainfall. The summary dated 14th temperature good rainfall poor although comment about drier types further south being displaced north was OK.

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
1. Russia: TEMO and PPN no signal.
2. USA - CFS2 : TEMP good PPN fair, OK fo April but not June
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good PPN good.
4. UKMO : Temp good PPN fair - got the N dier.
5. USA - IRI : Temp good PPN no signal.
6. KMA APCC : Temp fair PPN no signal.
7. JMA : Temp good PPN poor.
8. NMME : Temp good PPN poor especially April Indication that N would be drier, poor..
9. IMME : Temp good PPN poor.
10. BCC : Temp fair PPN poor.
11. Brazil : Temp poor PPN poor.
12. NASA : Temp PPN .
13. CanSips : Temp good PPN poor.
14. SAWS: Temp fair PPN fair .
15. Copernicus Temp good PPN poor.
16. EC Temp good PPN poor.
17. MF Temp fair PPN fair.


CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP N/a

CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN n/a

NMME Temp:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly





DATA available in Feb 2017 for April May June

Temperatures OK but only CANSIP got the wetter June though not drier April. NMME drier April.


DATA available in January 2017 for April May June

Temperastures mostly OK but rainfall poor.


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