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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, April May June 2016 - compiled 7 July 2016


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

UKMO


CPC MONTH and THREE MONTH (Graphics added when available) TEMP and PPN anomalies







IRI statistic link based on El Nini, suggested normal and in many places above normal rain apart from below normal across W Scotland and NW Eire. UKMO maps more or less agree with that although the month to month data shows a lot of regional variation with the drier areas made up for by a wetter June. For the UK as a whole above the 3 months had above normal temperature and rainfall as did each of N Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England.

IRI climate impacts.


Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in March 2016 for Apr May June 2016


Comment on the summary: Not a good summary, epecially the month to month detail. Got the idea of above normal rain overall and above normal temperatures in the east of UK but poor detail.
Models may hav fallen fown on lack of ability to predict convective rainfall in summer due to resolution issues
1. Russia: Temps quite good and rainfall hinted at drier in N and wetter in S.
2. USA - CFS2 : A little cool overall btu got some ideas of above normal rain but often in the wron places. Monthly rain detail poor from graphics temperature trend OK but detail not so good.
3. UKMO Contingency: Good overall. April detail fairly reasonable.
4. UKMO : Temp signal OK but lack of W winds led to reduced impact of cooler sea temperaures. PPN poor and pressure poor.
5. USA - IRI : Correct temp signal no signal for rainfall.
6. KMA APCC : Temp fair PPN poor.
7. JMA : Temp signal cool but rainfall and pressure were of the correct sign. 8. NMME : Temperature monthly plots OK hinted at cooler in NW in April then building positive anomaly. Rainfall June poor otherwise OK but detail incorrect. 3 month summary not so good.
9. IMME : Temps OK PPN no good.
12. BCC temp OK but a little weak anomalies higher than forecast. Rainfall not good.
11. Brazil - not good temp and rain - pressure not good.
12. NASA - Temp OK but monthly detail poor. PPN poor.
13. SAWS - Temp in S OK cool for the N. PPN poor.
14: CanSips - temps a little cool. PPN fair overall but June datail not good.



CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP 080216





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 080216




200hPa height anomalty NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib 080216


JMA analysis data for 500 and 200hPa suggests that the low anomaly OK in April to NE of UK but but misplaced in May and June anomalies where to the S and SW of UK rather than to the NE.(070716)

DATA available in Feb 2016 for Apr May June 2016

Summary: Most got the idea of above normal temps and UKMO/CFS2 some indication of above normail rain. UKMO pressure signal poor tends to predict above normal pressure



DATA available in Jan 2016 for Apr May June 2016

Detail poor for above normal temps but some indication of trend. Locally above normal rain indicated by UKMO and some of the NCEP CFS2 data but most output a poor a guide.


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