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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, April May June 2015 - compiled 3 July 2015


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

CPC MONTH and THREE MONTH (Graphics added when available) TEMP and PPN anomalies





UKMO data suggests: TEMP Above normal overall but Scotland below normal (largely due to very mild April followed by near normal or cooler months). PPN: Overall near normal for UK but N Ireland, Scotland and Wales wetter and England drier. (April drier May wetter June drier).
Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in MAR 2015 for Apr May Jun 2015


Comment on the summary: Summary gave good indication of outcome
1. Russia: Temps OK ppn some idea of wetter in NW.
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp OK with near normal signal but did not suggest cooler in N/NW. PPN poor but graphics had hints of dry wet drier picture
3. UKMO Contingency: Gave good idea that May or June could be cooler (with regards normal) than April. PPN split NW/SE was quite good and the idea of near normal overall was correct.
4. UKMO : Gave a good indication of wetter in NW and drier elsewhere. Temps OK
5. USA - IRI : not helpful
6. KMA APCC : Temp not especially good. PPN some idea of wetter in NW but did not get drier periods
7. JMA : Temp trend good PPN not so good
8. NMME : OK for England but not so good for Scotland
9. IMME - temps OK PPN reasonable but not in NW were turned out wetter
12. BCC - got the idea of cooler in NW but overall temps a little cool. PPN not helpful
11. Brazil - not goodbr> 12. NASA - poor overall

CFS2 mean TEMP (MAX MIN not shown)



CFS2 mean PPN


NMME MAX and MIN



NMME TEMP: mean data


NMME TEMP probs


NMME PPN:


NMME PPN: Probs



DATA available in FEB 2015 for Apr May Jun 2015


Summary: Not much to choose from but CFS2 had some idea of wetter May


DATA available in Jan 2015 for Apr May Jun 2015

Summary: UKMO had some idea of temp ditribution but again not model was especially helpful




Any questions E Mail Mike

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