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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, Apr May June 2014 - compiled 2 August 2014 (delayed)





Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts





UK data shows UK average temperature above normal although May was cooler (except NI).
Rainfall more complicated, mostly slightly above (NI slightly below) due to wetter May and in Scotland May and April with other areas drier in April and June.


Follow links above to orignal forecast summary for more detail of forecast.

DATA available in March 2014 for AMJ 2014


The comment summary summary for normal or above normal temps correct - the colder signal stated as not favoured.
Rain summary hinted at dier NW which as OK for NI but not Scotland and the signal for near normal masked the month by month detail which was not captured by any output.

1. Russia: Forecast bit cold. PPN some indication of above normal rain.
2. USA - FSU : above normal temps OK rain near normal
3. USA - CFS2 : TEmps on the cool side. Month by month PPN data not so good did not get drier months
4. UKMO : A little on the cold side but some indication of above normal. Rain near normal with some above fair.
5. UKMO Contingency - above normal temps good rain near normal but did not get drier April
6. USA - IRI : above normal temps correct ppn near normal
7. KMA APCC : near normal or slightly above temps rain not helpful
8. JMA - to cold. PPN forecast above normal overall but did not get below normal months correct
9. NMME - not far from normal so just about OK.
10. IMME - jinted at above normal temps and near normal rain so just about OK
11. BCC - near normal - to cold, ppn OK.
12. Brazil - some indication of above normal temps rainfall not so good.
13. NASA - near normal indicated and monthly forecasts not correct


DATA available in FEB 2014 for for AMJ 2014

Most underforecast the average temp rise above normal by about 0.5 to 1C apart from IRI which is mostly to mild.
CFS2 hinted at the drier April but not June, otherwise no specific help from models.


DATA available in JAN 2014 for for AMJ 2014

Summary hint for drier June was OK, NASA hinted at drier months, UKMO again a little on cool side although many places suggested at being above normal.




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