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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, WINTER - December 2015 January and February 2016 - compiled 3 March 2016

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

CPC MONTH/UK and if available the THREE MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies

JMA PMSL anomalies

Record breaking mild and near record wet winter.

Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in November 2015 for Dec 2015 Jan and Feb 2016

IRI EL Nino statistical relationship
IRI climate impacts.

IRI probs signal for normal or above normal rain understated the rain perhaps because the El Nino was amongst the strongest on record and did not get the locally drier East Anglia.

Original Summary - Good signal for milder and wetter. Fairly good indication that the north and more widely February would be less mild than the start of the winter, also the north probably more snow than normal lookeed good. Did not get the drier in E
1. Russia: Not a good guide.
2. USA - CFS2 : Good overall with temp and rain but just a little cool. Got the overall idea and monthly changes fairly well. Did not get the drier in E
3. UKMO Contingency: Overall good with above normal temp and rain just not strong enough signal for the very mild and wet though suggestions of less mild later were OK.
4. UKMO : Strongly zonal flow correct. Temps good hig probs for extremes and signal for wet or very wet good. Did not get the drier in E.
5. USA - IRI : not good but above normal temps OK.
6. KMA APCC : Not a strong enough signal for mild and wet.
7. JMA : Got the predominant SW or WSW flow correct but not the very mild and very wet.
8. NMME : Milder signals to some extent offset by less good colder and drier models. Graphics gave reasonable idea for wetter and milder but less good in Feb and did not get the drier in E.
9. IMME - Better signal than NMME got some idea o drier and E and overall above normal temps and rain.
10. BCC - not strong enough indication
11. NASA - poor too cold and not wet enough.
12. Brazil: not good persisted sea temps better with rain than the predicted ones.
13: SAWS: Good signal both temp and rain but did not get the drier in E

CFS2 mean TEMP

CFS2 mean PPN


NMME TEMP: mean data




Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly 080815 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server

Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS means Precip anomaly (ignore scale) 080815 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server

DATA available in Oct 2015 for Dec 2015 Jan and Feb 2016

Summary: overall good signal in UKMO and CFS2, fairly good in BCC. NASA and NMME not so good

DATA available in September 2015 for Dec 2015 Jan and Feb 2016

Summary: Quite good. Models typically understated the mild and wet.

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